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China Grew 4.5 Per Cent in the Third Quarter. Investment Is Down 7.2 Per Cent This Year, and Private Investment 10.4.

The headline improved by two-tenths of a point. Underneath it, the economy is being carried by exports and services while investment, property and household spending on goods go the other way.

A row of red and white ship-to-shore container cranes along the quay of the Yangshan deep-water port near Shanghai, with stacked containers stretching into the haze on the right.

Container cranes at the Yangshan deep-water port, which serves Shanghai, in 2013. File photograph.

China's economy grew 4.5 per cent in the third quarter from a year earlier, up from 4.3 per cent in the second, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Monday. On the previous quarter, output rose 1.2 per cent. Over the first nine months of 2026 the economy grew 4.6 per cent, to 107,107.1 billion yuan.

The headline moved the right way. The composition is more interesting. Fixed-asset investment fell 7.2 per cent in the first three quarters, private investment fell 10.4 per cent, and investment in real estate development fell 20.6 per cent. Retail sales of consumer goods rose 1.1 per cent. The growth is coming from somewhere else.

Two places, on the bureau's own figures. The first is services. Tertiary industry, which includes finance, retail, transport and other services, grew 5.2 per cent over the nine months, against 3.8 per cent for industry and construction and 3.7 per cent for agriculture. Retail sales of services rose 5.0 per cent while sales of goods rose 1.0 per cent.

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