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Yields Touched Five Percent and Then Fell. The Market Read the Hike as a Promise.

The decision was Tuesday's. Wednesday was the verdict, and the verdict was that a committee willing to raise into an oil shock is a committee that intends to finish the job.

A dark screen displaying a white line graph of financial market data

The ten-year yield settled at 5 percent on Tuesday, its highest since 2007, and eased the day after the Fed raised rates.

The ten-year Treasury note settled at 5 percent on Tuesday, the highest it has been since 2007, after eight straight sessions of rising yields.

On Wednesday it fell. Equity futures rose, Brent crude gave up about 5 percent from the previous session to around $105.75, and gold dropped $35.20 to $4,352.30.

The Federal Reserve had raised rates the day before, for the first time since 2023. On the textbook account, that should have made every risk asset cheaper and every yield higher. The market did the opposite.

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The Picture

A silicon wafer patterned with a grid of iridescent chip dies, photographed in shallow focus.
A silicon wafer. The labs whose pace the essay is about are private; the companies that supply them are not, and that is where the selling went. File photograph.

The Market Read the Essay as a Forecast for Chip Demand

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The Long View

Three First Ministers Signed a Declaration of Self-Determination. None of Them Can Call a Vote.

The leaders of the SNP, Plaid Cymru and Sinn Féin, who are now the first ministers of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, signed a joint declaration in Cardiff on Monday asserting their nations' right to self-determination. The UK prime minister has already ruled out referendums in Scotland and Northern Ireland. The power to hold one sits with Westminster in every case.

By Margaret Holloway  

The Welsh flag, a red dragon on white and green, flying from a pole against a clear blue sky.

The Hormuz Closure

The Long View

The Satellite Pictures Were Bought Before the Strike and Again After It

US officials have linked satellite imagery supplied to Iran by Chinese entities to the July strike on a base in Jordan that killed three American soldiers, The Wall Street Journal reported. Iran obtained high-resolution pictures of the base before the attack and after it. The officials did not accuse the Chinese government. The disclosure lands ten days before Xi Jinping is due at the White House.

By Cory Chamberlain  

A large dish antenna on a steel tower against a dark hillside, in black and white.

The Long View

Iran Says a Faction Ended the Truce. That Account Suits Everyone Telling It.

The New York Times, citing Iranian officials, reports that a hardline group attacked ships in the Strait of Hormuz in early July without the knowledge of the president, the Revolutionary Guards commander or the national security council, wrecking the memorandum meant to end the war. Iranian officials told Washington the same thing in July. Analysts argued then that the chain of command had decided.

By Cory Chamberlain  

A red-hulled tanker at anchor on calm sea, other ships faint on the horizon.

The Numbers

Seventy-Six Dead, and the Count Finally Closes at 132

The Philippine Coast Guard recovered 41 more bodies from the MV June Aster on Saturday, raising the toll to 76 with 43 survivors and 13 missing. Those figures add up to 132, which is exactly the number who boarded. The ship was certified for 330. Overloading is no longer the question; the two explosions and the missing captain are.

By Cory Chamberlain  

Two vehicles on the open deck of a small ferry crossing a bay, in black and white.

The Long View

The Plan to Halve FEMA Lost in Court Because Nobody Wrote Down Why

A federal judge in San Francisco has ruled that the Department of Homeland Security acted unlawfully in directing FEMA to cut its workforce roughly in half. The record contained no reasoning for the cut, the officials who discussed it used Signal and deleted the messages, and the judge will now presume those messages would have shown unlawful conduct.

By Cory Chamberlain  

A FEMA staff member at a laptop speaks with a resident across a desk at a disaster recovery centre.
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