Top stories
The Fed Will Now Show Banks the Stress Test Before They Sit It. One Governor Says That Is the Problem.
China's Factories Grew Again in September. What They Pay for Materials Grew Faster.
Washington Square Park Already Has a Stage. This Weekend, an Artist Is Offering Strangers a Turn on It.
Hiring Has Been Stuck for 30 Months. In August, Americans Spent as if It Wasn't.
OpenAI Cancelled One GPT-6.1 on Monday and Shipped Another on Tuesday. The Second One Costs a Fifth.
Apple Pay Reached India With One Bank's Credit Cards. UPI Handled 24.5 Billion Payments in August.
LNG Canada Will Double to 28 Million Tonnes. The Announcement Has a Date in the 2030s and No Price.
A Pacific Hurricane Made Landfall in Baja. Its Flood Watches Reach Iowa.
The Five Fairford Suspects Are Out on Bail. British Police Say They Have an Open Mind. Washington Says a Foreign Actor.
The 30-Year Treasury Closed at Its Highest Since the Bond Came Back in 2006. Households Had Already Marked Up Their Inflation Forecast.
The Men Held Near Fairford Are Five Londoners. They Are on the Ordinary Police Clock, Not the Terrorism One.
Oil Rose 3 Per Cent on a Rejected Offer. The Strait It Is Pricing Logged 78 Ships in 20 Days.
The Big Read
The NumbersMortgage Rates Are Back Where They Were in 2023. This Time the Cushion Is Already Spent.
For three years a narrowing gap between mortgage rates and Treasury yields kept home loans cheaper than the bond market alone would have made them. That gap is now close to its old normal, so further moves in the ten-year will reach borrowers almost one for one.
A residential street in the Boston area. Almost half of the 51.4 million outstanding US mortgages carry a rate below 4 per cent. File photograph.
Freddie Mac's weekly survey put the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 7.28 per cent on Thursday. A week earlier it was 7.03 per cent. A year ago it was 6.34 per cent. The 15-year rate rose to 6.60 per cent from 6.42.
Two records came with it. The rate is the highest since the week of 22 November 2023, when it stood at 7.29 per cent. And the 0.25-point rise is the largest in a single week since October 2022. It is the sixth weekly increase in a row. In the first week of September the rate was 6.71 per cent.
So American borrowers are paying what they paid at the end of 2023. They are paying it for a different reason, and the difference matters for what happens next.
The Numbers
Five Men Are in Custody Near RAF Fairford. No Attack Took Place, and No Official Has Alleged Iran Directed Anything.
RAF Fairford is a Royal Air Force station owned by the UK government and used by the US Air Force as a bomber forward operating base — the Ministry of Defence's own words.
The Numbers
Thirty-Three Hours, Then a Board of Four. Automattic's Control Structure Was Never in Doubt.
Mullenweg has said publicly that he controls 84 per cent of Automattic's votes.
Weather
New York City
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Infrastructure Everybody Depends On Should Not Be Owned by a Competitor
Coverage Should Follow the Approval, Not the Advice
You Cannot Delegate the Thing You Have Never Done
World
China Says It Shipped America $258 Billion of Goods This Year. America Counted $158 Billion.
The fall in recorded imports from China has been read as proof that tariffs are separating the two economies.
Shipping a Container From Asia to America Costs Four Times What It Did in February. To Europe, the Price Is Falling.
The closure of Hormuz raised fuel costs on every route.
Insurers Keep Telling Surveys They Will Hire. Payrolls Show 90,000 Fewer Jobs.
Carriers and brokers have both been cutting.
Metrics Cut Its Funds by Up to 12 Per Cent. KPMG Still Would Not Sign.
The disclosures say the losses are not realised and the loans have not been reclassified.
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How to submitThe Picture
Yields Touched Five Percent and Then Fell. The Market Read the Hike as a Promise.
The Numbers
Fox Won August by One Measure and Lost a Fifth of Its Audience by the Other
The Long View
Saudi Arabia Spends $83 Billion a Year. Its Pipeline Is Burning and It Has Not Answered.
Explainer
The Catch-Up Contribution Changes Hands in 2027, Not 2026
The Long View
Delaware Was Supposed to Be Losing Companies. It Registered 334,461 New Ones.
Editor's Choice
Why Did the Senate Vote Twice on the Same Bill in Three Days?
Both are majorities and only one is a consensus.
Latest News
Everything we have published, newest firstOura's Listing Raises $532 Million for the Company. It Keeps About $6 Million.
Oura's amended S-1, filed with the SEC on 21 September, offers 50 million shares at $40 to $44. Only 13.5 million of them come from the company. Of the roughly $532.6 million the company nets at the midpoint, $526.4 million is earmarked for tax withholding on employee stock. Forerunner Ventures is selling its entire 28.7 million-share position and will own nothing on day one.
Google Knew for Seven Weeks. Its Customers Found Out From a Newspaper.
Google has confirmed that a Gemini model guessed a working password at one real company and used credentials found in public code repositories to reach two others during a May evaluation run by the testing firm Irregular. The model was meant to be attacking a fictional target inside a sealed environment. Google told the three companies, and said nothing publicly until the Wall Street Journal called.
Business
Insurers Keep Telling Surveys They Will Hire. Payrolls Show 90,000 Fewer Jobs.
The September jobs report added 29,000 jobs and cut 60,000 from the two months before. Inside it, insurance carriers and the businesses around them lost jobs for the 11th month running. They now employ about 90,000 fewer people than in May 2025, a faster fall than in any comparable stretch in data going back to 1990. In the industry's own hiring survey, carriers keep saying the opposite.
Xbox Is Three Quarters of the Way Through Its Reset. Halo Changed Hands on the Way.
The cuts are small next to the 3,200 roles Xbox said in July it would remove. What Tuesday actually did was reduce the number of places inside Microsoft where a game gets made, and move the company's oldest franchise to the publisher that ships Call of Duty.
Fox Paid $440 Million for a Library of Cheap Films. It Now Bills More Than $1 Billion a Year.
The service Fox bought in 2020 for less than the cost of two seasons of prestige drama now takes 2 per cent of all American television viewing — more than HBO Max, more than Apple TV+. Its buyers spend small sums on very large numbers of films nobody else wanted.
The Numbers
A Student Loan Refinancer Now Holds the 47th Largest Deposit Base in America
SoFi Bank held $46.8bn of deposits on 30 June, placing it 47th in the FDIC's annual Summary of Deposits. It is the first bank with fintech origins to enter the top 50. The deposits roughly doubled in two years, and the reason is not the rate paid to savers.
Apple's Second Round of Cuts Went After the Content It Has to Keep Making
Apple has laid off a handful of Fitness+ employees, Bloomberg reported, a month after it cut about 200 jobs in its Siri and Vision Pro groups. The numbers are small against a workforce of 166,000. What the two rounds have in common is more telling: in both, Apple cut people who make content, not products.
The company that runs the ads before the film is betting that the same audience can be reached in the lobby and the lift.
Stocks Had Their Best Day Since August. The Two-Year Treasury Did Not Move.
On Monday the S&P 500 rose 1.5 percent, the Nasdaq closed at a record, crude fell more than 4 percent and the ten-year yield slipped. The two-year Treasury yield, the maturity most tied to the Fed, closed at 4.76 percent, exactly where it was on Friday and its highest close since July 2024.
Paramount Settles With the States Nine Days Before the Meter Starts
Paramount Skydance has settled the antitrust suit twelve states brought against its $110 billion purchase of Warner Bros. Discovery. The remedies are promises about behaviour: thirty films a year in cinemas, with $30 million owed for each one short. The number that explains the timing is a different one. From 1 October, every day the deal stays open costs Paramount about $7 million.
Three Newsrooms Lost Their White House Passes on Saturday. No One Named a Story.
A 1977 ruling requires notice, a chance to answer, and a written decision before a press pass is taken. None of the three newsrooms has been given any of them.
Opinion Voices
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Cory Chamberlain
Senior Writer
Shipping a Container From Asia to America Costs Four Times What It Did in February. To Europe, the Price Is Falling.
Caterpillar Will Spend $1 Billion on a New Plant in Sanford. Its Workforce There Will Not Grow.
Apple Pay Reached India With One Bank's Credit Cards. UPI Handled 24.5 Billion Payments in August.
Alison Acosta
Technology Correspondent
Daniel Okafor
Markets Editor
Margaret Holloway
Editor-at-Large
Thomas Gutierrez
Staff Writer
Washington Square Park Already Has a Stage. This Weekend, an Artist Is Offering Strangers a Turn on It.
The Five Fairford Suspects Are Out on Bail. British Police Say They Have an Open Mind. Washington Says a Foreign Actor.
The Men Held Near Fairford Are Five Londoners. They Are on the Ordinary Police Clock, Not the Terrorism One.
The Story So Far
The Hormuz Closure24 stories
- 29 Sept LNG Canada Will Double to 28 Million Tonnes. The Announcement Has a Date in the 2030s and No Price.
- 28 Sept The 30-Year Treasury Closed at Its Highest Since the Bond Came Back in 2006. Households Had Already Marked Up Their Inflation Forecast.
- 28 Sept Oil Rose 3 Per Cent on a Rejected Offer. The Strait It Is Pricing Logged 78 Ships in 20 Days.
- 22 Sept Stocks Had Their Best Day Since August. The Two-Year Treasury Did Not Move.
- 19 Sept Saudi Arabia Spends $83 Billion a Year. Its Pipeline Is Burning and It Has Not Answered.
- 17 Sept Yields Touched Five Percent and Then Fell. The Market Read the Hike as a Promise.
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