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Oil Rose 3 Per Cent on a Rejected Offer. The Strait It Is Pricing Logged 78 Ships in 20 Days.

Washington says nearly 40 million barrels left the strait under escort in two days, a pace equal to the pre-war average. Satellite ship tracking sees almost nothing. Both can be true, and the gap between them is where Monday's oil price lives.

A crude oil tanker with a dark blue hull and red waterline lies at anchor on calm blue water under a clear sky, its white superstructure at the stern. No other vessels are visible.

A crude oil tanker at anchor. This photograph was not taken in the Strait of Hormuz and does not show a vessel named in this article. File photograph.

President Trump said on Saturday that he had turned down Iran's offer to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within a week. By Monday morning in Asia, Brent crude had recovered all of Friday's fall and more, trading at $107.35 a barrel shortly before 8am London time, according to Al Jazeera, against about $104 at the end of last week.

"I rejected their deal," Trump told reporters on the South Lawn of the White House, as reported by NBC News. "They want to make a deal where they open the strait immediately because they're losing so badly."

That is the news. The more useful question for anyone reading an oil price this week is what, exactly, the market thinks it has lost. The honest answer depends on whose count of the strait you believe, and the two counts on the public record are about as far apart as it is possible for two counts to be.

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