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Hiring Has Been Stuck for 30 Months. In August, Americans Spent as if It Wasn't.

Job openings, hires, quits, the Conference Board's jobs question, ADP's pay data and this morning's income and spending release each say something different. Read together, they describe an economy where almost nobody is being fired, almost nobody is being hired, and the reward for moving is large enough that the people who stay put are paying for it.

A white sign reading HELP WANTED in black capitals hangs by suction cups inside a shop's glass door, with blurred reflections of the street and people behind it.

A help-wanted sign in a shop door. The hires rate has stayed between 3.1 and 3.5 per cent every month since March 2024. File photograph.

The American labour market has a number that has barely moved in two and a half years, and on Tuesday the Bureau of Labor Statistics published it again.

In August, employers made 5.2 million hires. That is a hires rate of 3.3 per cent of employment. It was 3.2 per cent in July, 3.4 per cent in June and 3.3 per cent in May. On the monthly series, as republished by the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis, the rate has sat between 3.1 and 3.5 per cent every single month since March 2024: thirty months in a band four-tenths of a point wide.

Before 2024, the last time it was at or below 3.3 per cent was October 2013, if you set aside April 2020, when much of the country was shut. In 2019, the last full year before the pandemic, it averaged 3.87 per cent.

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