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September CPI Is Due Wednesday, and Forecasters Expect Headline Inflation Near 3.7 Per Cent. Core Is Expected at About 2.4 Per Cent.

A gap of more than a point between headline and core inflation is mostly a petrol story. It splits what households feel from what the Federal Reserve is weighing before its 27-28 October meeting.

An empty petrol station with an orange-lit canopy and fuel pumps at night.

A petrol station at night. File photograph.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish its September Consumer Price Index on Wednesday 14 October at 8:30 a.m. Eastern, the agency said in its August release. A street consensus compiled for a preview by the broker Admirals puts headline inflation at about 3.7 per cent over 12 months, up from 3.4 per cent in August, with core expectations clustered around 2.4 per cent.

The headline number will draw the attention. The gap underneath it is the story. If those forecasts are right, prices excluding food and energy will be rising more than a point more slowly than prices overall. That points to petrol.

The Cleveland Fed's nowcast, updated on 9 October, puts September CPI up 0.53 per cent on the month and 3.60 per cent on the year, with core up 0.20 per cent on the month and 2.39 per cent on the year.

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