Saturday, November 7, 2026
Analysis
The Associated Press has called both chambers of Congress for Democrats, so a Republican President will face a Democratic Congress from January. Stocks rallied on Wednesday. Large tax and tariff bills now look less likely, and the outgoing Congress still has to fund the government by 11 December.
The Bank of Japan held its policy rate at 1.25 per cent on Friday 30 October by an 8-1 vote and said underlying inflation is now "generally consistent" with its 2 per cent target, a first since the target was set in 2013. One board member wanted 1.5 per cent. The bank will also sell its ETF holdings more than twice as fast from January.
Christine Lagarde will step down as president of the European Central Bank after its February policy meeting and leave on 7 February 2027, she said on Thursday 29 October. Her eight-year term would have ended in October 2027. No successor has been chosen.
Exxon Mobil earned $15.4 billion and Chevron $9.9 billion in the third quarter, the companies said on Friday 30 October. Chevron's profit was almost three times its year-earlier figure. Refining and fuel sales supplied nearly half the combined total, while both companies produced less oil and gas than a year earlier.
Caterpillar's sales rose 17 per cent to $20.7 billion in the third quarter and adjusted profit was $7.20 a share, the company said on Thursday. Its order backlog reached a record $78 billion, up about $38 billion from a year earlier. It expects construction equipment volume to fall modestly in the fourth quarter as dealers shrink their stocks.
The Federal Reserve kept its target range at 3.75 to 4 per cent on Wednesday by a 10-2 vote, with Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack voting for a quarter-point increase. On Thursday the government reported growth of 3.4 per cent in the third quarter and core PCE inflation of 3.1 per cent in September. The next decision is due on 9 December.
Ares Capital, the largest listed business development company, agreed on 26 October to buy MidCap Financial Investment Corporation, which is managed by an Apollo affiliate, for about $10.88 a share in cash and stock, a total enterprise value of about $2.6 billion. The price is a 30.1 per cent premium to MFIC's last close but below its preliminary net asset value of about $12.86 a share. The deal needs MFIC shareholder approval and is expected to close in the first half of 2027.
Brazil's Ibovespa fell as much as 17 per cent on Monday, 26 October, and trading was halted for 30 minutes, after President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won Sunday's runoff with 51.79 per cent of valid votes. It closed down 13.88 per cent, and the dollar closed up 8.25 per cent against the real.
Lazard said on 22 October that adjusted net revenue rose 11 per cent to $805 million in the third quarter, with advisory and asset management both up. Adjusted earnings fell 36 per cent to 36 cents a share as the adjusted compensation ratio rose to 69.9 per cent from 65.5 per cent. The firm's long-term target is 60 per cent or below.
Texas Instruments said on Wednesday 21 October that third-quarter revenue rose 28 per cent to $6.06 billion and earnings rose 77 per cent to $2.62 a share. It guided fourth-quarter revenue to $5.80 billion to $6.30 billion, a midpoint level with the third quarter. Trailing 12-month free cash flow was $8.42 billion, including $1.10 billion of CHIPS Act incentive proceeds.
Tradeweb Markets said on Monday 19 October that it will buy Trumid Holdings, an electronic corporate-bond trading platform, for about $1.97 billion: $1.75 billion for the business and about $220 million for tax assets. About $1.89 billion is cash. Closing is targeted for the first half of 2027 and needs regulatory approvals.
Steel Dynamics said on 19 October that third-quarter net income was $756 million, or $5.26 a share, on net sales of $6.5 billion and record shipments of 3.8 million tons. The average external steel price rose $102 a ton from the second quarter to $1,400. The EPS was below the $5.34-$5.38 range the company gave on 17 September.
Valero Energy reports third-quarter results on Thursday 22 October. The consensus estimate on Nasdaq's earnings calendar is $21.23 a share, against $12.54 adjusted in the second quarter and $3.66 a year ago. Nothing has been reported yet.
Russia resumed diesel export loadings at the Baltic port of Primorsk this week, and the first reported cargo, about 40,000 metric tons, is heading to Morocco, not the United States. Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said U.S. deliveries need a contract, a vessel and two to three weeks. AAA put U.S. diesel at $6.32 a gallon on Sunday, against $6.23 when the Treasury licensed Russian diesel on 9 October.
The PHLX Semiconductor Index fell 3.8 per cent on Friday 16 October, its eighth straight losing session, a streak it last matched in October 2008. The iShares Semiconductor ETF has lost 16 per cent since 6 October but is still up about 64 per cent in 2026.
Charles Schwab said on Thursday 15 October that third-quarter net revenue rose 17 per cent to a record $7.17 billion and adjusted earnings rose 29 per cent to $1.69 a share. Revenue came in a hair under the $7.19 billion consensus, and the shares closed down 2.7 per cent.
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh told the IMF and World Bank meetings in Bangkok on Friday 16 October that he does not prejudge meetings, and called AI probably the most consequential economic change of his lifetime. The Fed decides on 28 October after raising rates to 3.75 to 4 per cent in September.
Citigroup said on Tuesday 13 October that third-quarter net income was $5.2 billion, or $2.85 a share, on revenue of $23.8 billion, up 8 per cent. Return on tangible common equity was 11.5 per cent, down from 13.0 per cent in the second quarter.
JPMorgan Chase reported third-quarter profit of $15.3 billion, or $5.57 a share, on Tuesday 13 October, against an LSEG consensus of $5.85. Reuters said it was the bank's first profit miss since the fourth quarter of 2023. Excluding $658 million of losses on investment securities, the bank earned $5.75, still below the estimate.
Robert E. Hall and Michael Woodford won the 2026 economics Nobel on Monday for the microeconomic foundations of stabilisation policy. The Academy credits Woodford, among others, with proposing forward guidance. On 28 August Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said the practice "has overstayed its welcome."
Minutes of the Federal Reserve's September meeting show every participant supported raising rates to a range of 3.75 to 4 per cent, and most expect another increase by the end of the year. Tariffs, the main inflation story of 2025, are fading. Spending on artificial intelligence and energy are taking their place.