Thursday, September 17, 2026
The Long View
In her State of the European Union address in Strasbourg on Wednesday, Ursula von der Leyen invited Canada to become the EU's first associate member. The treaties make full membership impossible, because Canada is not a European state. What she is offering is a new category, to be negotiated, with a summit in Montreal next month.
With nearly all votes counted in Bangsamoro's first parliamentary election, the Bangsamoro Federalist Party leads on 35.2 percent against 32.4 percent for the United Bangsamoro Justice Party, the Moro Islamic Liberation Front's own party. The leader in front is the region's chief minister, himself a former MILF commander. Turnout passed 82 percent. Proclamations are delayed.
Austria revoked the visa of Mohammad Eslami, head of Iran's Atomic Energy Organization, before the IAEA's General Conference opened in Vienna on Monday. The United States objected to a UN sanctions waiver for his travel, and under the committee's rules one objection was enough. Iran says the host country broke its obligations. The conference it cannot attend is the one that debates its nuclear programme.
More than 2.3 million voters in the Muslim-majority Bangsamoro region of the southern Philippines were eligible on Monday to elect the region's first parliament, the step that ends the transition set up by the 2014 peace agreement with the Moro Islamic Liberation Front. A shooting near a polling station killed three people the day before. Results are still to come.
Sweden's centre-left opposition leads the preliminary count by 176 seats to 173, with postal and overseas votes still to come. The Social Democrats are the largest party on 28.1 percent. The Sweden Democrats, whom the prime minister had proposed bringing into government, fell to 17.6 percent, the first decline in their history.
The leaders of the SNP, Plaid Cymru and Sinn Féin, who are now the first ministers of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, signed a joint declaration in Cardiff on Monday asserting their nations' right to self-determination. The UK prime minister has already ruled out referendums in Scotland and Northern Ireland. The power to hold one sits with Westminster in every case.
Speaking at his golf resort in Ireland on Sunday, President Trump said the US would ultimately leave Iran "unless we decide to stay and keep the oil like Venezuela," and that gasoline prices would "drop like a rock" when the war ends. The two statements point in opposite directions. One describes a withdrawal. The other describes an occupation of the world's most contested oil infrastructure.
Saudi Arabia shut its East-West pipeline after drone attacks last week, closing the main route its oil had used to avoid the Strait of Hormuz. Over the weekend the Houthis took Perim Island and with it control of the Bab al-Mandab, the strait that cargoes loaded at the pipeline's Red Sea terminal must pass to reach Asia. Brent rose toward $108 on Monday.
US officials have linked satellite imagery supplied to Iran by Chinese entities to the July strike on a base in Jordan that killed three American soldiers, The Wall Street Journal reported. Iran obtained high-resolution pictures of the base before the attack and after it. The officials did not accuse the Chinese government. The disclosure lands ten days before Xi Jinping is due at the White House.
The Philippine Coast Guard recovered 41 more bodies from the MV June Aster on Saturday, raising the toll to 76 with 43 survivors and 13 missing. Those figures add up to 132, which is exactly the number who boarded. The ship was certified for 330. Overloading is no longer the question; the two explosions and the missing captain are.
The New York Times, citing Iranian officials, reports that a hardline group attacked ships in the Strait of Hormuz in early July without the knowledge of the president, the Revolutionary Guards commander or the national security council, wrecking the memorandum meant to end the war. Iranian officials told Washington the same thing in July. Analysts argued then that the chain of command had decided.
The MV June Aster was four nautical miles from Coron when survivors say an explosion came from the cargo hold. Thirty-five are confirmed dead, 43 survived and 53 are missing. That is 131 people against a manifest of 134, and in Philippine ferry disasters the manifest has not always been the number aboard.
Donald Trump told reporters on Wednesday that the war with Iran "is going to end immediately after the election" on 3 November, and that Washington is no longer seeking a negotiated end. When the party most able to stop a war names the week it will stop, everyone else stops planning for an outcome and starts planning for a date.
