Wednesday, October 7, 2026
The MV June Aster was four nautical miles from Coron when survivors say an explosion came from the cargo hold. Thirty-five are confirmed dead, 43 survived and 53 are missing. That is 131 people against a manifest of 134, and in Philippine ferry disasters the manifest has not always been the number aboard.
Donald Trump told reporters on Wednesday that the war with Iran "is going to end immediately after the election" on 3 November, and that Washington is no longer seeking a negotiated end. When the party most able to stop a war names the week it will stop, everyone else stops planning for an outcome and starts planning for a date.
American forces struck further Iranian tankers, and attacks have been reported on Saudi oil facilities. Brent passed $100. For a year this conflict was fought over a waterway and the vessels crossing it. Hitting production and export infrastructure is a different category of target, and it does not reverse.
Two people were pulled out alive on the tenth day — a worker from 225 metres inside a flooded hydropower tunnel, and a 64-year-old from her collapsed house. Nepal and China now count 1,375 dead and about 5,000 missing. The gap between those figures will close, and almost none of it will close through rescue.
Iran's security council secretary says a restricted maritime zone will be declared within days, running from the US blockade line through Hormuz into the Gulf, with uncoordinated vessels placed on a list affecting their insurance and future passage. American forces have already redirected 87 ships. A master cannot satisfy both.
On Saturday this paper asked whether the 72-hour halt on strikes against Kyiv and Moscow would be extended, and said a return to strikes the moment the aircraft left would mean the pause was hospitality. The talks ended without a breakthrough. Zelensky expects the war to run into winter. The undertaking runs out at the end of Monday.
The AfD took 43.8 percent in Saxony-Anhalt on Sunday and 39 of 83 seats, three short of a majority. The four parties that have ruled out governing with it hold 39 between them — exactly the same number. The balance is five seats belonging to the one party that has not ruled it out.
Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner met Vladimir Putin in Moscow on Saturday and Volodymyr Zelensky in Kyiv on Sunday. To make the two journeys safe, Russia and Ukraine each held off aerial attacks on the other's capital for 72 hours. It was arranged in days, it required no monitors, and it held.
An American carrier and a guided-missile destroyer evaded ballistic missiles fired by the Revolutionary Guard on Saturday. No US personnel were hurt. The response was not aimed at the launchers. US forces struck three Iranian oil tankers — two disabled, one abandoned by its crew and left inoperable.
Six transits a day where there were eighty-five. Meanwhile the day rate for a very large crude carrier has passed $200,000 on the Gulf-to-Asia run, up more than 440 percent in a year, and tanker owners are booking the best earnings since the last supercycle. The same event did both things.
Eleven more ships were added this week to a blacklist now naming 56 vessels — crude carriers, gas tankers, clean product ships. The clause that matters is the last one: any vessel that takes cargo from a listed ship, ship-to-ship, joins the list. That is not area denial. It is a sanctions regime, run from the other side.
The delivery company building Expo 2030 shifted to Saudi-made pipe, cable and concrete and avoided the shortages the war produced. Local content rules were written to build an industrial base. They turned out to be a supply chain hedge nobody had priced.
US officials say COSCO vessels carry concealed signals-intelligence equipment. China calls the claim baseless. Either way, the problem the accusation creates is commercial: the fleet in question calls at the ports that everyone else's cargo moves through.
A head of state posted an AI-generated video of explosions at the world's most important oil export terminal. There was no other evidence of an attack. For anyone pricing oil, the question is no longer whether it happened but what it costs to find out.
When Suez closed, ships went around Africa. It cost more and took longer, and it worked. The Gulf offers no equivalent, which is why traffic through Hormuz has fallen by most of itself rather than moved somewhere else.
Every party to a sea voyage can transfer the risk of a closing chokepoint to somebody else. Owners insure hulls, charterers hedge freight, underwriters lay it off again. The crew is the one link in the chain with no market to sell its exposure into.
Almost every byte that crosses an ocean crosses a cable, and the cables break constantly. The vessels that fix them are a few dozen ageing ships held on shared retainers, and the replacement pipeline is close to empty.
The fastest way to move disaster supplies is also the most expensive per tonne in existence. The alternatives cost a fraction and require somebody to fund idle capacity in advance, which no budget cycle rewards.
The long-term contracts that financed the world's liquefied natural gas terminals assumed buyers who would take the volume for decades. Those buyers are now asking to be let out, and the terminals still have debt to service.
Organisers say about 150,000 people marched in some 20 German cities on Saturday demanding a ban on the AfD, six days after it won 43.8 percent in Saxony-Anhalt. Germany's constitutional court has refused a ban before because a party was too insignificant to threaten democracy. The AfD's success removes that obstacle and creates a different one.