Friday, September 25, 2026
The House passed a war powers resolution 220 to 204 late on Tuesday, directing the president to remove US forces from hostilities with Iran. Seven Republicans crossed. It is the third time the chamber has voted this way since June, and none of the three has reached the president's desk. The Congressional Budget Office put the war's cost at $2bn to $3bn a month.
Austria revoked the visa of Mohammad Eslami, head of Iran's Atomic Energy Organization, before the IAEA's General Conference opened in Vienna on Monday. The United States objected to a UN sanctions waiver for his travel, and under the committee's rules one objection was enough. Iran says the host country broke its obligations. The conference it cannot attend is the one that debates its nuclear programme.
Speaking at his golf resort in Ireland on Sunday, President Trump said the US would ultimately leave Iran "unless we decide to stay and keep the oil like Venezuela," and that gasoline prices would "drop like a rock" when the war ends. The two statements point in opposite directions. One describes a withdrawal. The other describes an occupation of the world's most contested oil infrastructure.
US officials have linked satellite imagery supplied to Iran by Chinese entities to the July strike on a base in Jordan that killed three American soldiers, The Wall Street Journal reported. Iran obtained high-resolution pictures of the base before the attack and after it. The officials did not accuse the Chinese government. The disclosure lands ten days before Xi Jinping is due at the White House.
The New York Times, citing Iranian officials, reports that a hardline group attacked ships in the Strait of Hormuz in early July without the knowledge of the president, the Revolutionary Guards commander or the national security council, wrecking the memorandum meant to end the war. Iranian officials told Washington the same thing in July. Analysts argued then that the chain of command had decided.
Brent settled near $108, the highest in nearly four months. West Texas Intermediate rose above $104 after surging almost 7 percent, closing above $102 for the first time since May. This desk asked yesterday whether traders would price the president's stated end date. They have answered, and the answer is no.
Donald Trump told reporters on Wednesday that the war with Iran "is going to end immediately after the election" on 3 November, and that Washington is no longer seeking a negotiated end. When the party most able to stop a war names the week it will stop, everyone else stops planning for an outcome and starts planning for a date.
American forces struck further Iranian tankers, and attacks have been reported on Saudi oil facilities. Brent passed $100. For a year this conflict was fought over a waterway and the vessels crossing it. Hitting production and export infrastructure is a different category of target, and it does not reverse.
Iran's security council secretary says a restricted maritime zone will be declared within days, running from the US blockade line through Hormuz into the Gulf, with uncoordinated vessels placed on a list affecting their insurance and future passage. American forces have already redirected 87 ships. A master cannot satisfy both.
Iran's Revolutionary Guard says it hit three oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz and three US-affiliated ships, hours after American forces disabled three Iranian tankers. CENTCOM has not confirmed it and no damage has been reported. The notice issued alongside the claim needs no confirmation.
An American carrier and a guided-missile destroyer evaded ballistic missiles fired by the Revolutionary Guard on Saturday. No US personnel were hurt. The response was not aimed at the launchers. US forces struck three Iranian oil tankers — two disabled, one abandoned by its crew and left inoperable.
A head of state posted an AI-generated video of explosions at the world's most important oil export terminal. There was no other evidence of an attack. For anyone pricing oil, the question is no longer whether it happened but what it costs to find out.