Oil ended the week higher, though not for the reason traders expected on Friday morning. Brent crude futures settled at $104.72 a barrel, up 44 cents, and U.S. West Texas Intermediate at $91.85, up 36 cents, according to Reuters. Both were set for a weekly gain.
The day began with a drop. President Trump said on Thursday that talks with Iran were "productive" and that no attack was planned before the 3 November midterm elections, CNBC reported, after media reports that he was weighing a strike before then. He also teased an undisclosed announcement on diesel and said he was considering suspending the federal gasoline tax. China's plan to resume refined fuel exports after a Golden Week pause weighed on prices as well. Then the storm took over: prices settled higher as more production shut ahead of the hurricane, Reuters reported.
Two Gulfs, two shocks
Hurricane Isaias was heading for the northern Gulf Coast. As of Thursday, producers had shut in about 1.3 million barrels a day, or 62.9 per cent of current oil production in the Gulf of Mexico, according to the U.S. Marine Minerals Administration; by Friday's settlement, Reuters said, companies had shut more than 70 per cent of crude production in U.S. waters. Oil & Gas Journal reported that Shell had suspended output at several installations, including Mars, Olympus, Ursa, Vito and Appomattox, and that Chevron had shut four platforms. The storm's insured toll is a separate matter: much of its flood damage may not be insured at all, as we reported.
The other shock is the war. Oil rose about 5 per cent in early trading on Thursday, with Brent above $105, before easing from its highs, as attacks on commercial vessels hit the recovery in tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, Oil & Gas Journal reported. The International Maritime Organization counted 11 tankers hit crossing the strait in the week ending 4 October, the highest weekly total since the war began in late February, Briefs Finance reported, with five more attacked this week.
One of them was unusual. This week a tanker was struck by "multiple projectiles" about 51 nautical miles north of Qatar, with casualties reported, the UK Maritime Trade Operations agency said. The BBC described it as a rare attack deep inside the Gulf, and Martin Kelly of EOS Risk Group told it this was the first reported attack this far west of Hormuz since 9 September. The IMO counts at least 24 seafarers killed in 93 confirmed incidents since the war began, the BBC reported; Briefs Finance put the incident count at 100.
How much oil is getting through
That depends on who is counting and over what period. The Financial Times, cited by Oil & Gas Journal, reported that flows had recovered to nearly 90 per cent of prewar levels in late September before falling, to about 4 million barrels a day on Tuesday. Kpler data cited by Briefs Finance show crude exports through Hormuz averaging 8.5 million barrels a day in the week to Wednesday, roughly 40 per cent below prewar norms. Kpler analysts cited by the BBC, using a longer window, put exports over the past two weeks at an average of 12 million barrels a day, about 80 per cent of prewar levels, with the U.S. military protecting tankers through the strait.
Those figures are not contradictory so much as differently timed. The wider point, made by Windward's Michelle Wiese Bockmann, is that "volumes are getting through but they're getting through at a time of extremely high maritime risk."
The diplomacy
On the political side, Iran's Tasnim news agency reported that Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said Tehran is reviewing the U.S. response to its proposal to reopen the strait within seven days, Reuters said. Washington is also still imposing sanctions, this week on individuals, networks and 17 vessels carrying Iranian crude, oil products and petrochemicals. The BBC recalled that a preliminary agreement to end the war and reopen the strait in June collapsed within weeks after Iranian attacks on shipping resumed and the U.S. reinstated its blockade.
On our reading, that history is why Friday's early drop was modest. A pledge not to strike before an election date is a statement about timing, not about the strait, and the tanker count suggests shipping is still being hit while talks continue.
What to watch
Two things will set the next week's price. One is how quickly Gulf of Mexico platforms restart once Isaias passes; Oil & Gas Journal noted that undamaged installations can generally resume after weather clears and safety inspections finish. The other is whether the attack count falls. If it does not, the price of insuring and escorting cargoes will keep rising whatever is said in Washington. The G-7's agreed release of 100 million barrels from emergency stocks is the policy response to the supply squeeze. A storm shuts barrels for days. A war that touches a fifth of world oil shipments, as the strait did before the war, shuts them for as long as it lasts, and that is the risk behind the 61 per cent rise in oil since February we reported earlier.
The settlement prices, the Friday trading narrative, Trump's remarks on Iran, diesel and the federal gasoline tax, Iran's review of the U.S. proposal to reopen the strait within seven days, the sanctions on 17 vessels, China's planned resumption of refined fuel exports, the comment of Tamas Varga and the share of Gulf of Mexico output shut in are from Reuters, as published by CNBC on 9 October 2026 and by The Business Times on 10 October 2026. The early Thursday gain of about 5 per cent, Brent above $105, the flows through the strait reported by the Financial Times, the Isaias shut-in figures as of 7 October and the Shell and Chevron shutdowns are from Oil & Gas Journal, 8 October 2026. The attack north of Qatar, the EOS Risk Group comment, the death toll and incident count from the International Maritime Organization, the 12 million barrels a day over two weeks, and the history of the June agreement are from the BBC, 8 October 2026. The 11 tankers hit in the week ending 4 October, the five attacks that followed, Kpler's 8.5 million barrels a day, the Joint Maritime Information Center notice and the comments of Michelle Wiese Bockmann are from Briefs Finance, 9 October 2026. The analysis is our own.
Topics marketsoilbrenthormuziranhurricane isaiastankersenergy
