Saturday, October 17, 2026
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh told the IMF and World Bank meetings in Bangkok on Friday 16 October that he does not prejudge meetings, and called AI probably the most consequential economic change of his lifetime. The Fed decides on 28 October after raising rates to 3.75 to 4 per cent in September.
The Census Bureau said on Thursday 15 October that U.S. retail and food services sales were $745.0 billion in September, up 0.8 per cent from August and 6.3 per cent from a year earlier. Once autos and gasoline stations are removed, the gain was 0.2 per cent, a figure the bureau flags as statistically indistinguishable from zero. August was revised up to 1.3 per cent.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics said on Thursday 15 October that the Producer Price Index for final demand rose 1.3 per cent in September and 6.3 per cent from a year earlier. Energy rose 10.8 per cent and accounted for more than 80 per cent of the increase in goods prices. The measure that excludes food, energy and trade rose 0.5 per cent in the month and 5.0 per cent over the year.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics said on Wednesday 14 October that consumer prices rose 0.6 per cent in September on a seasonally adjusted basis and 3.7 per cent from a year earlier, up from 3.4 per cent in August. Core prices, which exclude food and energy, rose 0.3 per cent in the month and 2.6 per cent over the year. Gasoline accounted for more than half of the monthly increase.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish September consumer prices on Wednesday 14 October at 8:30 a.m. Eastern. Forecasts put headline inflation at 3.6 to 3.7 per cent, up from 3.4 per cent in August, and core at 2.4 to 2.5 per cent. Nothing has been published yet; these are forecasts.
Delta Air Lines now expects adjusted earnings of $5.10 to $5.60 a share this year, down from the $6.50 to $7.50 it affirmed in July. Its third-quarter fuel bill rose 62 per cent. Fares rose almost as fast, and that is why the quarter's operating profit barely moved.
Minutes of the Federal Reserve's September meeting show every participant supported raising rates to a range of 3.75 to 4 per cent, and most expect another increase by the end of the year. Tariffs, the main inflation story of 2025, are fading. Spending on artificial intelligence and energy are taking their place.
PepsiCo beat revenue forecasts on the strength of its international business but lowered its earnings outlook for 2026, said recovery in North America was taking longer than planned, and confirmed it will raise prices on some chips and sodas after cutting them earlier in the year.
The Institute for Supply Management's services survey slipped to 54.9 in September, still comfortably in growth. Its prices index rose to 74, the highest since July 2022. Half of the purchasing managers surveyed paid more for what they buy; 2.2 per cent paid less. All 17 industries that reported a change in prices reported an increase.
The hires rate has sat between 3.1 and 3.5 per cent every month since March 2024, a pace last seen outside the pandemic in 2013. Quits are at 1.9 per cent. Yet real consumer spending rose 0.6 per cent in August while real disposable income did not grow, and the saving rate fell to 4.1 per cent. This week's data describe a labour market that has stopped moving and households that have kept spending anyway.
The 30-year Treasury yield closed at 5.49 per cent on Friday, its highest since the Treasury resumed issuing the bond in February 2006, and the ten-year ended the week 21 basis points higher than it started. The University of Michigan's final September survey has year-ahead inflation expectations at 4.6 per cent, up from 4.0 per cent in August, and sentiment at 48.1.
The Federal Open Market Committee raised its target range a quarter point to 3.75 to 4 percent on Wednesday, its first increase since 2023, on a 12-0 vote. The statement says inflation remains elevated and promises the Committee "will deliver price stability." Twelve of eighteen officials expect another increase this year.
Brent above $100 arrives in a household budget faster than almost any other price. Headline inflation is expected near 3.4 percent while core is forecast to ease toward 2.4, and that gap is the whole question — because a family does not buy the core index.
Fed funds futures put the chance of a quarter-point rise at the September meeting at about 59 percent. Three months ago the same market was arguing about the size of a cut. Brent above $100 and the ten-year at its highest close since 2023 are the reason, and an energy shock is the one shock a central bank cannot fix.
The funds rate has sat at 3.5 to 3.75 percent while the 30-year Treasury reached 5.31 percent last month, its highest in 19 years, and the 10-year went to levels last seen in 2023. A governor says he is inclined to hold. The long end is not arguing with him. It has stopped listening.
Headline inflation cooled, but households keep feeling squeezed, and the culprit hiding in the budget is insurance: home, auto and health premiums repricing years of accumulated risk.