Sunday, September 27, 2026
The Federal Open Market Committee raised its target range a quarter point to 3.75 to 4 percent on Wednesday, its first increase since 2023, on a 12-0 vote. The statement says inflation remains elevated and promises the Committee "will deliver price stability." Twelve of eighteen officials expect another increase this year.
Brent above $100 arrives in a household budget faster than almost any other price. Headline inflation is expected near 3.4 percent while core is forecast to ease toward 2.4, and that gap is the whole question — because a family does not buy the core index.
Fed funds futures put the chance of a quarter-point rise at the September meeting at about 59 percent. Three months ago the same market was arguing about the size of a cut. Brent above $100 and the ten-year at its highest close since 2023 are the reason, and an energy shock is the one shock a central bank cannot fix.
The funds rate has sat at 3.5 to 3.75 percent while the 30-year Treasury reached 5.31 percent last month, its highest in 19 years, and the 10-year went to levels last seen in 2023. A governor says he is inclined to hold. The long end is not arguing with him. It has stopped listening.
Headline inflation cooled, but households keep feeling squeezed, and the culprit hiding in the budget is insurance: home, auto and health premiums repricing years of accumulated risk.