Inflation Is 3.7 Per Cent, Less Than Half Its Rate Before the 2022 Midterms. Gasoline and Mortgages Cost More Than They Did Then.

U.S. consumer prices rose 3.7 per cent in the year to September, less than half the 8.2 per cent pace recorded in the last official reading before the 2022 midterm elections. Gasoline and mortgages, though, cost more than they did on the eve of that vote.

Those are the last numbers voters will have. The September consumer price index, published on 14 October, is the final inflation reading before Tuesday's election; the October report is not due until 10 November, the Bureau of Labor Statistics says. The October jobs report follows on 6 November, three days after the polls close. The rate of inflation has fallen a long way. The prices people notice have not.

How do prices now compare with the 2022 midterms?

The pace of increase is much slower, but the level is higher. In the 12 months to September 2022, the last reading published before the vote on 8 November that year, consumer prices rose 8.2 per cent and core prices, which exclude food and energy, 6.6 per cent. The equivalent figures now are 3.7 and 2.6 per cent, the September 2026 release shows.

A slower rate of increase still adds to the level. By this publication's arithmetic, using the bureau's seasonally adjusted index as published by the St. Louis Fed, the price level is 13.5 per cent higher than in September 2022. Nothing in the data has gone back down. That is the gap between what the statistics say and what a shopper sees.

The table compares the last readings before each election. The four-year and one-year changes are our calculations from seasonally adjusted Bureau of Labor Statistics indexes; the weekly fuel and mortgage figures are as published.

Groceries are the clearest reversal. Food-at-home prices were rising by almost 13 per cent a year in 2022; they rose 1.8 per cent in the latest year, the bureau said. Rent has risen most over the four years, and rose 2.8 per cent in the latest year by our calculation.

Why is fuel the exception?

Because of the war with Iran. The gasoline index rose 34.2 per cent in the year to September, the bureau said, against 18.2 per cent in the year to September 2022 by our calculation. Regular gasoline averaged $4.269 a gallon in the Energy Information Administration's survey for 26 October, against $3.796 on 7 November 2022, the day before the last midterms, according to the agency's weekly series. That is 47 cents more.

The price has come down from its peak. The same survey put regular gasoline at $4.50 in May and $4.478 in September. AAA's national average was $4.17 on Monday, down from $4.40 a month ago and up from $3.04 a year ago. The cost of the war to households, which Moody's put at almost $2,000 each, is concentrated in exactly the prices that change daily on a roadside sign.

What has happened to pay and borrowing?

Pay has outrun prices over four years but not over the past one. Average hourly earnings for private employees rose 3.0 per cent in the year to September, against prices up 3.7 per cent, Bureau of Labor Statistics data show. By our arithmetic that is a real fall of about 0.7 per cent, close to the 0.6 per cent fall in inflation-adjusted wages that the Employment Cost Index showed last Friday. Over four years, hourly pay rose about 16.1 per cent and prices about 13.5 per cent, a real gain of roughly 2.3 per cent.

Borrowing is dearer. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 7.24 per cent in Freddie Mac's survey of 29 October, its lowest of the month but up from 6.17 per cent a year earlier and 6.95 per cent in the survey published just before the 2022 vote. On a $400,000 loan, our calculation puts the principal and interest payment at about $2,726 a month, against about $2,648 at the 2022 rate and $2,442 a year ago.

The Federal Reserve has not offered relief. It held its target range at 3.75 to 4 per cent last week, with two officials voting for a rise, as this publication reported.

What would change the picture?

The next two releases, both after the vote. The October jobs report on 6 November will show whether unemployment, 4.2 per cent in September after 4.1 per cent in August, is still edging up. The October price index on 10 November will capture the month in which pump prices began to fall. A drop in the gasoline index would pull the headline rate down quickly; core inflation at 2.6 per cent says the rest of the basket is not the problem.

That is the test. If headline inflation falls toward core while wages hold near 3 per cent, the real-pay squeeze of the past year ends without any change in policy. If fuel turns up again, it does not.

Consumer price figures for September 2026, including the 3.7 per cent headline, 2.6 per cent core, 34.2 per cent gasoline, 1.8 per cent food at home and 4.4 per cent electricity changes and the 10 November date of the next release, are from the Bureau of Labor Statistics release of 14 October 2026. September 2022 figures and all index levels used in our comparisons are Bureau of Labor Statistics series as published by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), retrieved on 2 November 2026. Weekly gasoline prices are from the Energy Information Administration via FRED; the 2 November AAA average is from AAA's national survey. Mortgage rates are from Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey, including its 29 October 2026 release. Average hourly earnings and unemployment rates are Bureau of Labor Statistics data via FRED. The 6 November jobs report date is from the BLS release schedule. All four-year and one-year changes computed from seasonally adjusted indexes, the real-pay calculations and the mortgage payment estimates are this publication's arithmetic. The analysis is our own.

Topics moneyinflationgasolinemortgage rateswagesBureau of Labor Statisticshousehold financeeconomic data