U.S. retail and food services sales were $745.0 billion in September, up 0.8 per cent from August and 6.3 per cent from a year earlier, the Census Bureau said on Thursday in its Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services. The figures are adjusted for seasonal variation and for holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes. The bureau also revised the August gain to 1.3 per cent from 1.1 per cent.

That sounds like a strong month, and by the headline it is. The bureau's own breakdown says something narrower. Excluding motor vehicles and parts, the monthly gain was 0.9 per cent. Excluding motor vehicles and parts and gasoline stations, it was 0.2 per cent, and the bureau marked that figure with an asterisk: the 90 per cent confidence interval includes zero, so there is "insufficient statistical evidence to conclude that the actual change is different from zero."

Dollars, not goods

Retail sales count money spent. When prices rise, the number rises without anyone buying more. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Wednesday that consumer prices rose 0.6 per cent in September and gasoline rose 9.1 per cent in the month. Set 0.8 per cent against 0.6 per cent and the real gain is roughly 0.2 per cent, by this publication's arithmetic. That matches the figure with gasoline removed, although the two are different measures and the match may be partly luck.

Over the year the picture is similar. Sales are up 6.3 per cent; consumer prices are up 3.7 per cent. That leaves growth of about 2.5 per cent after inflation, by our arithmetic, using the consumer price index as the deflator. That is well below the headline.

What the revisions say

The August revision matters as much as the September number. The bureau said the July-to-August change was revised to up 1.3 per cent, with a margin of plus or minus 0.1 per cent, from an initial 1.1 per cent. The bureau's chart shows July at a decline of 0.4 per cent. Those three months, read in sequence, show one weak month and two strong ones. They are not equally strong underneath: excluding motor vehicles and gasoline stations, August rose 1.1 per cent and September 0.2 per cent. September's gain was mostly fuel; August's was not.

Sales for July through September were up 5.5 per cent from the same period a year earlier, according to the bureau. The year-on-year rate for September alone, 6.3 per cent, is therefore running ahead of the quarter, which is what rising prices would produce. Gasoline stations are the reason. Their sales rose 6.4 per cent in September and were 28.1 per cent higher than a year earlier, and for July through September they were up 22.2 per cent on the same quarter of 2025, the bureau's tables show. Excluding gasoline stations, third-quarter sales were up 4.1 per cent. Excluding both motor vehicles and gasoline stations, September sales were up 5.0 per cent on the year.

What it means for the Fed

The Federal Reserve has two problems in one week. Prices are rising on fuel, and Thursday's producer price report shows cost pressure still moving through the chain. Spending that holds up in dollars gives the central bank less reason to see weakness. Spending that is flat in volume gives it less reason to see overheating. The September figures support both readings. That is our reading, not the Fed's.

>>Retail sales are reported in dollars, not goods.

The test is October. The Census Bureau has scheduled the next advance report for 17 November. If gasoline eases, the headline will cool on its own, and the volume of what households bought will show through. If it does not, the headline will keep flattering the underlying demand.

Sources

Sales totals, percentage changes, the revision and the quarter figure come from the Census Bureau's Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services, September 2026, released 15 October 2026 at 8:30 a.m. Eastern. The ex-auto, ex-auto-and-gasoline and gasoline-station figures are from Table 2 of the release, and match the release's chart. The consumer price figures come from the BLS CPI release of 14 October, as reported in this publication's earlier story. The real-growth arithmetic is this publication's and uses the CPI, not a retail price index. The analysis is our own.

Topics moneyCensus Bureauconsumer spendinggasolineinflation

Markets Editor

Daniel Okafor

Daniel Okafor edits Cranberry Journal's money and markets coverage. He writes about capital flows, interest rates and the incentives that shape investor behavior.

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