Seven core members of OPEC+ kept their December oil production targets unchanged at an online meeting on Sunday, and no further policy changes are expected until 2027, Reuters reported. The countries were Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan and Oman.
The decision was expected. Three people familiar with the talks had told Reuters before the meeting that the group had agreed in principle to hold, Gulf Insider reported. It also changes very little, because most of the Gulf is not producing as much as its targets already allow.
Why does holding the target change so little?
Because the constraint is the war, not the quota. Gulf members have been rebuilding exports disrupted for months by the Iran war, but most are still pumping well below their targets, Reuters reported. A higher target would not add barrels a country cannot ship. A lower one would cut nothing it is currently producing.
The group's recent decisions show the same pattern. The seven raised targets through much of 2026 and in September finished unwinding a cut of 1.65 million barrels a day first agreed in 2023. They held targets in October and November and have now held December too. A further layer of about 2 million barrels a day of cuts covers most members until the end of 2026, Reuters reported.
The membership is smaller than it was. The United Arab Emirates quit OPEC in May and took part in the monthly decisions until then, Reuters reported. OPEC+ now counts 21 countries.
What is the market paying?
Far more than official forecasters expected a month ago. Brent for December delivery settled at $117.64 a barrel on Friday as the contract expired, up $2.76 on the day. The January contract settled at $113.43 and U.S. West Texas Intermediate at $104.12. Traders were bracing for a possible escalation of the war after the U.S. midterm elections, Reuters reported.
Set those prices against the U.S. Energy Information Administration's Short-Term Energy Outlook of 6 October. This is our arithmetic.
| Price per barrel | Friday's December Brent settlement compared | |
|---|---|---|
| EIA forecast, Brent, fourth quarter 2026 | $105 | $12.64 higher |
| EIA forecast, Brent, 2026 average | $96 | $21.64 higher |
| EIA forecast, Brent, 2027 average | $84 | $33.64 higher |
| Brent 2025 average (EIA) | $69 | $48.64 higher, or 70 per cent |
Two details stand out. The December contract settled $4.21 above January, so buyers paid a premium for oil delivered sooner. That is our reading of a market short of barrels now, not one worried about a glut. And the EIA's forecast for next year, $84, already assumed that convoys and bypass routes would gradually raise Gulf output and exports.
That oil has been costly for some and lucrative for others. Exxon Mobil and Chevron earned $25.3 billion between them last quarter, while American natural gas, which cannot leave the country fast enough to follow world prices, has barely moved.
What happens on 29 November?
The argument OPEC+ has put off. All 21 members meet on 29 November, when analysts expect them to set quotas for 2027. Those quotas depend on a review of each member's production capacity, which the war has delayed; Reuters reported in October that it is now expected by mid-November.
"Today's decision was the easy one," Jorge Leon, an analyst at Rystad Energy, said, as quoted by Reuters. He said the group "faces an extremely difficult call for 2027," given uncertainty over the U.S.-Iran war and how quickly flows through the Strait of Hormuz recover.
The difficulty is the gap between the two scenarios. If the strait stays constrained, the quotas are academic again. If Gulf flows return to normal, the International Energy Agency and other forecasters warn of excess supply in 2027, and every member will want its new baseline set as high as possible before that happens. The capacity numbers due by mid-November are the first place that fight will show.
The 1 November decision, the seven members, the 21-member meeting on 29 November, the capacity review timing, the status of the 1.65 million and 2 million barrel-a-day cuts, the UAE's exit from OPEC in May, Jorge Leon's remarks and Friday's settlement prices are as reported by Reuters via CNBC on 31 October and 1 November 2026, and by Reuters via Gulf Insider and the Times of Oman on 1 November 2026. The price forecasts are from the U.S. Energy Information Administration's Short-Term Energy Outlook of 6 October 2026. The gap between settlement prices and the forecasts, and the spread between the December and January contracts, are this publication's arithmetic. The analysis is our own.
Topics marketsoilBrentSaudi ArabiaRussiaIran warStrait of HormuzenergyEIA
