The cost of moving a container from Asia to the United States appears to have stopped rising. It has stopped at roughly four times what it was before the Strait of Hormuz closed.
Xeneta, which tracks freight rates paid by shippers, put the market average spot rate from the Far East to the US West Coast at $8,346 per 40-foot container on 1 October. That is 344 per cent higher than on 28 February, the baseline Xeneta uses for the period before the crisis. To the US East Coast the rate was $11,523, up 335 per cent.
The same container sent from the Far East to northern Europe cost $3,726. That is 68 per cent more than in February, a fraction of the increase on the American routes. To the Mediterranean it cost $4,105, up 23 per cent. Both European rates have been falling since the start of July, and both fell again last week.
A peak, not a collapse
"Spot rates from Far East to the US ticked up again on 1 October, but we can say with a level of confidence that the market has reached its post-Hormuz crisis peak in 2026," said Peter Sand, Xeneta's chief analyst. The latest rises were small: 1.4 per cent on the West Coast route in the week and 0.7 per cent to the East Coast.
Sand attributed the turn partly to congestion easing in Asian ports as typhoon season ends, and partly to China's Golden Week holidays, which cut exports in the first week of October. "Demand is not strong and rates have now peaked, but they will not collapse, so shippers should expect to pay elevated freight costs for the remainder of the year," he said.
In three months, he said, spot rates could be $6,000 to $7,000 to the East Coast and $4,500 to $5,500 to the West Coast. "That would be a sizeable correction, but not a collapse," he said. Even at the bottom of those ranges, the American rates would be well above where they were before the crisis.
The other main indices show the same pattern, though their numbers differ because each is compiled in its own way. Freightos put Asia-US West Coast prices at $8,411 in the week to 30 September, a new high for the year, with the East Coast level at about $9,600. Drewry's World Container Index, published on Thursday, had Shanghai to New York up 1 per cent at $10,428 and Shanghai to Los Angeles unchanged at $7,835. Drewry expects rates to fall next week as Chinese factories close for the holiday.
Why America pays more
The analysts' explanations point to differences in both demand and capacity.
On the European side, both look weaker. Drewry said its Asia-Europe rates have now fallen for 12 consecutive weeks, "reflecting weak demand". At the same time, more ships are going through the Suez Canal, which shortens the voyage and in effect adds capacity. Drewry counted 68 per cent more Suez transits in the latest week than a year earlier.
American demand has held up. US ports took in 2,603,709 twenty-foot equivalent units of container imports in August, according to Descartes Systems Group, the third-highest monthly total on record. That was 3.3 per cent more than a year earlier. Freightos described US demand as resilient enough to keep pressure on rates through the end of September.
Capacity has been tight, too. Congestion in Far East ports ties up more than 8 per cent of global container capacity, according to an estimate from Sea Intelligence cited by Freightos, and could take up to ten months to clear. Freightos also cites higher fuel costs since the Hormuz closure, which are felt on every route.
The East Coast route has moved furthest. Xeneta measures the gap between East and West Coast rates at $3,177 per container, against about $772 before the crisis. Xeneta did not give a reason for the widening. One constraint on the route has been the Panama Canal, which in late August removed one daily transit for the largest ships and cut the maximum draft by a foot. Freightos said the canal authority will restore ten daily transits and a 49-foot draft in mid-October, calling it good news for transpacific shippers to the East Coast. Sand expects the East Coast rate to fall harder than the West Coast rate from here, because it starts from a higher level.
Who pays
The spot rate is the price an importer pays to ship without a long-term contract. Shippers on contracts pay their agreed rates, so the spot figures overstate what some cargo is costing. They are what importers buying space week by week actually pay.
The trade truce between Washington and Beijing, extended last week for two months, could add to demand after the holiday. Drewry said it could support a rebound in US-bound volumes. Freightos said the truce will cut tariffs to most-favoured-nation levels on about $30 billion of each other's imports once the legal steps are taken, and that US port fees on China-linked ships are likely to be postponed, though the US Trade Representative has not yet announced a deferral.
Sand's caution cuts both ways. "We can also not discount further major disruptions or geo-politic conflict that would change the situation dramatically once again," he said. For American importers budgeting for the holiday season and the Lunar New Year rush after it, Xeneta's forecast is a freight bill that falls from more than four times February's level to between two and three times it.
Spot rates, weekly and since-February changes, the East-West Coast spread and the quotations from Peter Sand are from Xeneta's weekly ocean container shipping market update of 2 October 2026, as published by the American Journal of Transportation. Freightos Baltic Index prices, the description of the US-China trade truce, the Sea Intelligence congestion estimate and the Panama Canal changes are from Freightos' weekly update of 30 September 2026, published by the same outlet. World Container Index figures and Drewry's outlook are from Drewry's weekly WCI commentary of 1 October 2026, read on drewry.co.uk. US import volumes and the quotation from Jackson Wood are from Descartes Systems Group's September Global Shipping Report (10 September 2026). The three indices are compiled differently and their figures for the same route do not match. Accurate to 9am ET on 3 October 2026.
Topics businessshippingsupply chainimports
