West Texas crude averaged $95.65 a barrel from April to June, up from $72.74 in the first three months of the year. For the states that produce it, the second quarter should have been a boom. In one sense it was.
Measured in current dollars, the eight fastest-growing state economies in the second quarter were all energy producers, according to figures the Bureau of Economic Analysis published on 30 September. Alaska's gross domestic product grew at an annual rate of 14.7 per cent, New Mexico's at 13.4 per cent, Texas's at 12.8 per cent and North Dakota's at 12.5 per cent. Wyoming, West Virginia, Oklahoma and Louisiana all grew at more than 11 per cent. The country's grew at 8.5 per cent.
Measured in real terms, which strips out changes in prices and counts only how much was produced, the picture reverses. Real GDP rose in 44 states and the District of Columbia. Of the six where it fell, four were energy states: West Virginia, at an annual rate of 2.3 per cent, Wyoming (1.6 per cent), Alaska (1.3 per cent) and North Dakota (0.9 per cent). Kansas and Nebraska were the other two. New Mexico, Oklahoma and Louisiana grew by less than half of 1 per cent, against 2.2 per cent for the country.
Worth more, not more of it
The gap is in one industry. The BEA's mining category covers oil and gas extraction, coal and other mining and the services that support them. In Alaska, New Mexico, Texas, North Dakota, Wyoming, West Virginia and Oklahoma, its real output fell in the second quarter while its value in dollars soared.
In West Virginia, real value added in mining fell at an annual rate of 19.6 per cent while its current-dollar value rose at a rate of 45 per cent. In North Dakota, real mining output fell at a rate of 9.3 per cent and in Wyoming 6.9 per cent; their current-dollar values rose at rates of 64 and 68 per cent. Oklahoma, Texas, New Mexico and Alaska follow the same pattern, with real mining output down at rates of between 3.4 and 5.9 per cent and current-dollar values up at rates of 70 to 75 per cent. The BEA's release named mining as the leading contributor to the fall in real GDP in West Virginia and in Wyoming.
The national figures show how far the two measures have parted since the end of last year. Between the fourth quarter of 2025 and the second quarter of 2026, the current-dollar value added of American mining rose from an annual rate of $379 billion to $518 billion, an increase of 36 per cent. Its real output fell by 3.6 per cent over the same six months.
Real value added is not a count of barrels. It is what an industry produces minus what it buys from other industries, such as fuel, equipment and services, with each adjusted for prices. It can fall when production is flat and the industry uses more inputs, or when output itself falls. But it is the measure from which real GDP is built, and by it the energy states' main industry produced less in the spring than in the winter, at the moment prices were telling it to produce more. Prices have stayed high since: Brent crude averaged 61 per cent more in September than in February, this publication reported on Saturday.
Why the states feel it differently
Mining is a large part of these economies. In the second quarter it made up 18 per cent of Alaska's current-dollar GDP, 17 per cent of West Virginia's, 16 per cent of North Dakota's, 15 per cent of New Mexico's and 14 per cent of Wyoming's, against less than 2 per cent of the national economy. A fall in mining volumes therefore shows up in these states' real GDP even when the rest of the economy is growing.
Texas shows the other case. Its mining output fell at a similar rate, but mining is about 8 per cent of its economy, and the rest grew fast enough to lift real GDP by 2.2 per cent, in line with the national rate.
Higher prices are not the same thing as higher incomes for the people who live there. Personal income in North Dakota fell at an annual rate of 4.2 per cent in the second quarter, the weakest of any state, and earnings there fell at a rate of 9.3 per cent, the BEA said. The release does not break down the reasons by state.
The quarter's strongest real growth came from elsewhere. New York led at 4.0 per cent, with finance and insurance the largest contributor, as it was in Delaware.
The figures for July to September, when crude averaged about $87, will come later. The BEA publishes its first estimate of national GDP for the third quarter on 29 October.
State GDP, state mining value added and national GDP are from the Bureau of Economic Analysis's release of 30 September 2026 (GDP third estimate, GDP by industry and state, and state personal income for the second quarter of 2026), retrieved from FRED (state series XXRQGSP, XXNQGSP, XXMINRQGSP and XXMINNQGSP; national GDPC1 and GDP; USMINRQGSP and USMINNQGSP). The statements on the range of state growth, the leading contributors in West Virginia, Wyoming, New York and Delaware, and state personal income are from the BEA release text. West Texas Intermediate quarterly averages are from the EIA's daily spot series (FRED DCOILWTICO). Annualised growth rates for states and industries not given in the release, mining's shares of state GDP and the national mining comparison are this publication's calculations from the published levels; real figures are in chained 2017 dollars. Accurate to 5pm ET on 5 October 2026.
Topics nationaloil pricesenergy
