Ryanair's profit after tax fell 15 per cent to €2.15 billion in the six months to September, even though it carried 6 per cent more passengers, because the share of its fuel it had not hedged roughly doubled in price, the airline said on Monday. It now expects its fuel bill to rise by about €2 billion in the year to March 2028.
The half-year is the smaller problem. Ryanair hedged about 80 per cent of this year's jet fuel at about $67 a barrel before the Iran war, its results release says. Only the other 20 per cent paid the doubled price of about $130. Next year that protection mostly expires.
What happened in the half?
More passengers paid less, and costs rose faster than revenue. Traffic rose 6 per cent to 125.8 million and the load factor held at 95 per cent, but the average fare fell 4 per cent to €55.70, the release shows. Revenue rose 3 per cent to €10.08 billion. Operating costs rose 10 per cent to €7.69 billion, and unit costs rose 5 per cent, which the airline attributed to unhedged fuel.
By this publication's arithmetic, working back from the reported growth rates, revenue rose by about €0.3 billion and costs by about €0.7 billion. The gap of about €0.4 billion is close to the €0.39 billion fall in profit after tax. Consumers became more hesitant and booked later because of the conflict in the Middle East, Ryanair said, as reported by Euronews.
| H1 FY26 | H1 FY27 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Passengers | 118.7 million | 125.8 million | +6% |
| Average fare | €58.0 | €55.70 | -4% |
| Revenue | €9.8 billion | €10.08 billion | +3% |
| Operating costs | €7.0 billion | €7.69 billion | +10% |
| Profit after tax | €2.54 billion | €2.15 billion | -15% |
Source: Ryanair H1 FY27 results. Prior-year figures other than profit are this publication's arithmetic from the reported changes and are rounded.
How big is next year's fuel bill?
About €9 a passenger. Ryanair has hedged only about 25 per cent of its fuel for the year to March 2028, at about $95 a barrel, and expects the bill to rise by about €2 billion at current forward prices. It is targeting more than 220 million passengers that year. By our arithmetic, €2 billion spread over 220 million passengers is about €9.10 each, or about 16 per cent of the €55.70 average fare this half.
That arithmetic fits what the chief executive told CNBC. "I believe you're going to see airfares rise next year across Europe by 10%, maybe even 20%," Michael O'Leary said, as quoted by CNBC. "Jet oil today is $170 a barrel." The airline does not expect higher fares and competitors' capacity cuts to cover the full increase, Euronews reported, and is reviewing temporary pay freezes, lower crew-to-passenger ratios and wider use of AI.
Why does hedging matter so much?
Because it decides who pays first. Ryanair says its hedging "has widened our cost advantage over other EU competitors and helped insulate current year earnings." Carriers elsewhere are already paying more: American Airlines expects fuel to cost it more than $7 billion extra this year. Ryanair's advantage narrows as its cheap cover runs off before summer 2027, Euronews reported.
The airline is preparing its balance sheet. It repaid €1.3 billion of debt in the half, held €2.6 billion of gross cash at 30 September, and plans an €800 million buyback from late February, the release says. It cut its traffic target for this year to 214 million from 216 million and trimmed winter flying. "We'll only be flat this winter over the prior year," O'Leary told CNBC.
What should readers watch?
The forward curve and the summer schedule. Ryanair said it is "too early to provide meaningful FY27 PAT guidance" and that "we have zero Q4 visibility." The €2 billion estimate moves with jet fuel prices, so a settlement of the war would shrink it and a longer conflict would not. The next marker is the summer 2027 fare its customers see when bookings open. If it is about 16 per cent above this year's, the fuel bill has been passed on in full.
Half-year profit, revenue, cost, traffic, fare, load factor, hedging, cash, buyback and traffic-target figures, and the quoted lines on guidance and visibility, are from Ryanair's H1 results release of 2 November 2026. Michael O'Leary's remarks on fares, winter capacity and the $170 jet fuel price are as quoted by CNBC on 2 November 2026. The cost review measures, the late-booking pattern and the early share move are as reported by Euronews on 2 November 2026. The per-passenger fuel cost, its share of the average fare and the split of the half-year cost increase are this publication's arithmetic. The analysis is our own.
Topics businessairlinesjet fuelIran warEuropeearnings
