Valero Energy will issue third-quarter results early on Thursday 22 October and hold a call at 10:00 a.m. Eastern, the company said in September. The number analysts are looking for is $21.23 a share, the consensus on Nasdaq's earnings calendar as compiled by StockTitan. Valero has not reported anything yet.
The estimate is large against Valero's own history. In the second quarter the company earned $12.54 a share on an adjusted basis, according to its earnings release. A year earlier it earned $3.66, reported in October 2025. By this publication's arithmetic, $21.23 is 69 per cent above the second quarter and about 5.8 times the year-ago figure.
What the second quarter looked like
Valero's refining margin, the gap between what its products sell for and what the crude costs, was $23.62 a barrel in the second quarter, against $12.35 a year earlier. Refining throughput averaged 2.95 million barrels a day. Refining operating income was $4.5 billion, compared with $1.3 billion in the second quarter of 2025.
The other two segments joined in. Renewable diesel earned $717 million, a swing from a $79 million operating loss a year earlier, on a margin of $2.52 a gallon. Ethanol earned $318 million, against $54 million. Net income attributable to stockholders was $3.7 billion, or $12.62 a share, compared with $714 million, or $2.28.
Cash did not stay home. Valero returned $2.6 billion to stockholders, a 59 per cent payout of adjusted operating cash flow, and declared a quarterly dividend of $1.20 a share on 16 July. It ended June with $7.9 billion of cash and $9.1 billion of debt. Chief executive Lane Riggs said: "We are pleased to report a strong second quarter."
Why the estimate is so high
The release does not give a margin outlook, so the case for $21.23 rests on outside conditions. The consensus implies that refining margins stayed at least as wide as in the second quarter, and probably wider. The ingredients are public. Brent crude settled on Friday at its highest since 19 May, about $109.86 a barrel by this publication's arithmetic from Reuters' figures, before falling $1.72 to $108.14 on Monday. AAA put U.S. diesel at $6.32 a gallon on Sunday, 74 per cent above a year earlier, as we reported in a piece on Moody's estimate that the Iran war has cost the average household almost $2,000.
A refiner earns on the spread, not the price of oil, so a rising crude price is not automatically good for Valero. Our reading is that the spread has been wide because refined products, diesel in particular, have been scarcer than crude. We have not seen a third-quarter average for that spread, and the second-quarter release gave no throughput guidance for the third quarter.
What could break the estimate
Three things. First, volume: Valero completed the end of refining operations at its Benicia refinery by the end of April, and the release counted $15 million of repair costs from a March incident at Port Arthur. Less capacity limits how much spread Valero can capture. Second, timing: a spike late in the quarter helps the next quarter more than this one.
Third, supply policy. Washington licensed imports of Russian diesel on 9 October, and the first cargo since then, about 40,000 tons, went to Morocco rather than the United States. On 16 October Trump signed an executive order waiving most of the sanctions and tariffs in the Graham Act, and Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the president will take up to 60 days to assess the effect on the global economy, Reuters reported. If Russian diesel arrives in volume, it narrows the spread Valero has been collecting.
What to watch next
On Thursday, three numbers will decide the reaction more than the headline per-share figure. The refining margin per barrel, against $23.62. Throughput, against 2.95 million barrels a day. And the fourth-quarter outlook and buyback pace, because the market will ask how long a spread this wide can last with Russian supply being let back in and the war with Iran unresolved.
Sources
- Valero Energy, Form 8-K, second-quarter 2026 earnings release (Exhibit 99.01), 30 July 2026: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1035002/000162828026050822/a6302026exh9901earningsrel.htm
- Valero Energy, "Valero Energy Corporation to Announce Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Results on October 22, 2026", Business Wire, 8 September 2026: https://finviz.com/news/389791/valero-energy-corporation-to-announce-third-quarter-2026-earnings-results-on-october-22-2026
- StockTitan, earnings calendar for the week of 19 October 2026 (Nasdaq consensus): https://www.stocktitan.net/articles/earnings-calendar-week-of-october-19-2026
- OilAndGas360, "Valero Trumps Q3 Earnings Estimates as Refining Margins Soar", 23 October 2025: https://www.oilandgas360.com/valero-trumps-q3-earnings-estimates-as-refining-margins-soar/
- Reuters (Siddharth Cavale, Robert Harvey), "Oil slips as Trump's sanction waiver may lead to more Russian fuel supplies", 19 October 2026, via AOL: https://aol.com/articles/oil-slips-trumps-sanction-waiver-222256000.html
- The White House, "Implementing the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026", 16 October 2026: https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2026/10/implementing-the-lindsey-o-graham-sanctioning-russia-and-iran-act-of-2026/
- Prior Cranberry coverage: /money/iran-war-household-bill/, /markets/forty-thousand-tons-to-morocco/
Second-quarter figures, segment results, cash, debt and the quotation from chief executive Lane Riggs come from Valero's second-quarter 2026 earnings release, filed with the SEC on 30 July 2026. The AAA diesel price comes from our report of 18 October. The year-ago adjusted earnings of $3.66 also appear in OilandGas360's report on Valero's third-quarter 2025 results, dated 23 October 2025. The 22 October date and call time come from Valero's announcement of 8 September 2026, distributed by Business Wire. The $21.23 consensus and the $3.66 year-ago figure are the Nasdaq earnings-calendar figures as compiled by StockTitan on 19 October 2026. Brent and WTI prices and Rubio's 60-day assessment come from Reuters, 19 October 2026; the Friday settlement is this publication's arithmetic from Reuters' figures. The scope of the 16 October executive order comes from the White House text. The multiples and percentage changes are this publication's arithmetic. The analysis is our own.
Topics marketsenergyrefiningdieselearningsIran war
