Morgan Stanley has already told investors what kind of quarter to expect. "I think it is safe to say 3Q is no 2Q," co-president Dan Simkowitz said at the Barclays financial services conference on 15 September, according to the transcript. "Second quarter of this year was pretty exceptional in markets."
The bank releases its results at about 7:30 a.m. ET on Wednesday 14 October, with a call at 9:30 a.m., according to its investor relations site. Nothing has been reported yet.
How high the second quarter set the bar
The second quarter was a record. Morgan Stanley reported net revenues of $21.3 billion and earnings of $3.46 a share, according to its July release, against $16.8 billion and $2.13 a year earlier. Equity trading revenue was a record $6.3 billion, up 69 per cent. Investment banking revenue rose 58 per cent to $2.44 billion. Wealth management had record net revenues of $8.9 billion and $148 billion of net new assets, of which the bank said just over half came from IPOs of certain clients in its workplace business.
A Reuters preview on 8 October put the LSEG consensus for the third quarter at $2.94 a share, against $2.80 a year earlier. That is about 15 per cent below the second quarter, by this publication's arithmetic, and 5 per cent above last year. Other previews have given higher figures, so the consensus is best read as a range starting near $2.94.
What Simkowitz said, in full
Simkowitz did not describe a collapse. He said "people are re-underwriting," and called that appropriate. On investment banking he described "very robust pipelines" but warned: "It cannot all get done this quarter." He described the pipeline as "an 18- 24 month cycle."
That is a forecast of delay, not of lost business. Reuters reported that surging bond yields in late September contributed to IPO delays, including those of the smart-ring maker Oura and the SoftBank-backed data centre developer SB Energy. IPO activity feeds both the bank's equity underwriting fees and, as the second quarter showed, its wealth management flows.
What its closest rival showed
Goldman Sachs is the nearest comparison, and it reported on Tuesday. Its Global Banking & Markets revenue was $13.46 billion, 32 per cent higher than a year earlier and 13 per cent lower than the second quarter, according to its release. Equities revenue was $6.44 billion, up 72 per cent from a year earlier, driven by prime and portfolio financing and derivatives. Investment banking fees were $3.22 billion, up 21 per cent.
Two details in Goldman's release matter for Morgan Stanley. Fixed income revenue was essentially flat from a year earlier, with lower revenue in mortgages, credit and rates. And Goldman's investment banking backlog decreased from the end of the second quarter, which fits Simkowitz's point about deals that could not all close in the quarter.
Goldman still earned $17.01 a share, far above the $13.02 consensus this publication cited on Monday. A strong year-on-year quarter and a step down from the second quarter are compatible. JPMorgan, which missed estimates on Tuesday, showed a similar shape: equity markets up 49 per cent on the year, investment banking fees down 8 per cent from the second quarter.
What is different at Morgan Stanley
Morgan Stanley is less of a trading bet than Goldman. In the second quarter, wealth management produced $8.9 billion of the firm's $21.3 billion of net revenues, against $11.0 billion from institutional securities. Asset management fees in wealth, $5.3 billion in the second quarter, are charged on client balances and move with markets rather than with deal volumes.
That makes wealth management the line that decides whether a softer trading quarter becomes a weak quarter overall. Net new assets will be the figure to compare: the second quarter's $148 billion was flattered by client IPOs, and a quarter of delayed IPOs is unlikely to repeat that.
Bank of America reports on the same morning, alongside the September consumer price index.
What to watch next
Three lines will settle Wednesday's read. The first is equity trading against the second quarter's record $6.3 billion, and whether it held up as well as Goldman's. The second is investment banking revenue against $2.44 billion, and any comment on the backlog. The third is wealth management net new assets against $148 billion.
Simkowitz's other line is the one to listen for on the call: that the pipeline is an 18 to 24 month cycle. If the delayed deals close in the fourth quarter, the third quarter will look like a pause. If they do not, the bank set its own bar for a reason.
Simkowitz's remarks are from the transcript of the Barclays 24th Annual Global Financial Services Conference on 15 September 2026, as published by StockAnalysis. The $2.94 LSEG estimate, the $2.80 year-ago figure, the Wednesday reporting date, Bank of America's expectations and the Oura and SB Energy IPO delays are from a Reuters preview of 8 October (Tatiana Bautzer and Pritam Biswas) as hosted on AOL. The release and call times are from Morgan Stanley's investor relations site. Morgan Stanley's second-quarter figures are from its earnings release of 15 July 2026 filed with the SEC. Goldman Sachs figures are from its third-quarter release of 13 October and JPMorgan's from its release of the same date. Estimates differ by provider; other previews have given higher figures. The comparison between the consensus and the second quarter is this publication's arithmetic. Morgan Stanley has not yet reported. The analysis is our own.
Topics marketsbank earningsinvestment bankingtradingwealth management
