Goldman Sachs reports third-quarter 2026 results on Tuesday 13 October at about 7:30 a.m. ET, with its earnings call at 9:30 a.m. ET, according to an IG preview published on Monday. IG puts the LSEG consensus at $13.02 a share on $16.71 billion of revenue, and says there have been 17 downward EPS revisions and no upgrades over the past 30 days.
The headline number has not moved much. The StarMine SmartEstimate, which gives more weight to recent and historically more accurate analysts, is $12.80, about 1.7 per cent below consensus. That is a 22-cent gap. The more useful question is which business lines the cuts sit in, and the public record does not answer it cleanly.
The number and its spread
IG's consensus of $13.02 is 6.3 per cent above the $12.25 a share Goldman earned in the third quarter of 2025, according to the firm's results release, when net revenue was $15.18 billion. IG's revenue estimate is about 10 per cent above that. By this publication's arithmetic, the StarMine figure still implies EPS growth of about 4.5 per cent on the year.
Zacks sits in the same narrow band. Its preview, carried by Yahoo Finance on 8 October, has EPS of $12.90 on $16.87 billion of revenue, and says its EPS estimate has been cut by 3.3 per cent over the past 30 days. The direction of travel is the same across both sources.
The comparison that matters is against the last quarter, not the last year. Goldman reported EPS of $20.98 for the second quarter of 2026 on net revenue of $20.34 billion, after $17.55 on $17.23 billion in the first quarter. Consensus for the third quarter is therefore about 38 per cent lower on EPS and about 18 per cent lower on revenue than the second. Some of that is a normal step down from an unusually strong quarter. Some of it is the estimate cuts. The public figures do not let us split the two.
Which line is under pressure
IG's preview names three things to watch. It cites consensus equities revenue of $4.68 billion, against $7.42 billion in the second quarter, a decline of about 37 per cent. It cites investment banking fees of $2.97 billion, against $3.40 billion in the second quarter. And it cites asset management incentive fees of $218 million, noting that management had previously signalled materially higher contributions in the second half.
IG does not say which of these lines the 17 revisions fall on, nor which data provider counted them. The line-level estimates also differ by source. Zacks has equities at $4.96 billion and investment banking fees at $2.76 billion, and puts fixed income, currencies and commodities (FICC) at $3.72 billion, against $4.59 billion in the second quarter. On investment banking alone, IG's figure is about 8 per cent higher than Zacks's.
The best available clue is from management, at second hand. Zacks Equity Research reported that Chief Executive David Solomon told the Barclays Global Financial Services Conference on 16 September that equity trading had been very strong in the third quarter, that FICC activity was relatively softer and that client and capital-markets activity remained constructive. Zacks also said non-compensation expenses were expected to rise by more than $500 million from the second quarter. We have not checked either point against a transcript. Our reading, not Goldman's or IG's: if estimates have been cut, FICC and costs are likelier places than equities, which makes the 37 per cent fall IG's equities number implies look conservative.
What the stock has priced
Goldman shares closed at $895.32 on Friday, the price IG cites, and at $893.95 on Monday, according to Yahoo Finance quote data. That is about 22 per cent below the July high near $1,154 that IG cites. IG gives an average Refinitiv price target of $1,111.95, with individual targets from $941 to $1,300. The options market, per IG's snapshot dated 12 October, implies a move of plus or minus 4.6 per cent on the report.
The reaction function is lopsided. IG's own conclusion is that lower forecasts make an earnings beat easier to achieve. A beat, though, is measured against a consensus that analysts have been lowering. A quarter that clears the number but comes with soft commentary on trading or a thin deal backlog would not necessarily lift the shares. That is our reading, not a forecast. JPMorgan, which also reports on Tuesday, will set the tone for the trading numbers before Goldman's call begins.
What happens next
Three figures will settle the question on Tuesday. The first is equities revenue against $4.68 billion (IG) or $4.96 billion (Zacks), which will show whether the second quarter's trading surge faded or held. The second is FICC against Zacks's $3.72 billion, the line management itself called softer. The third is investment banking fees against $2.97 billion or $2.76 billion, along with any comment on the backlog.
Also watch the cost line. If revenue lands near consensus and expenses run above it, any gap to $12.80 will come from there, not from the trading desks. Goldman's results release and the 9:30 a.m. call will show which it was.
The release time, call time, LSEG/Refinitiv consensus ($13.02 EPS, $16.71 billion revenue), the StarMine SmartEstimate ($12.80), the revision count, the equities, investment banking and incentive-fee estimates, the July high, the price targets and the options-implied move come from an IG preview published on 12 October 2026; IG does not say which provider supplies the revision count. Earnings per share and net revenue for the third quarter of 2025 and the first and second quarters of 2026, and second-quarter equities, FICC and investment banking revenue, come from Goldman Sachs results releases of 14 October 2025, 13 April 2026 and 14 July 2026 filed with the SEC. Zacks estimates come from a Zacks Equity Research preview carried by Yahoo Finance on 8 October 2026. David Solomon's September remarks and the expense guidance are as summarised by Zacks after the Barclays conference, not from a transcript. Closing prices are from Yahoo Finance quote data. The percentage comparisons are this publication's arithmetic. The analysis is our own.
Topics marketsbanksearningstrading
