JPMorgan Chase will release its third-quarter results at about 7:00 a.m. Eastern on Tuesday 13 October and host a call at 8:30 a.m., the company said, opening bank earnings season. Analysts expect revenue of $51.23 billion and earnings of $5.93 a share, according to MarketBeat, against $47.12 billion and $5.07 a share a year earlier.
Set against the last quarter, those numbers look like a fall. They are not, or not much. JPMorgan's second quarter carried $5.6 billion of gains that will not repeat in the same form, and the comparison that matters depends on taking them out.
What the second quarter contained
JPMorgan reported second-quarter net income of $21.2 billion, or $7.70 a share, in its earnings release of 14 July. Reported revenue was $57.3 billion and managed revenue $58.0 billion, up 27 per cent. The bank listed two significant items: a $4.6 billion net gain related to Visa shares, booked in Corporate, and $1.0 billion of gains on certain equity investments, $763 million in Corporate and $263 million in the corporate and investment bank. Excluding them, it earned $16.9 billion, or $6.14 a share.
The Visa gain came from an exchange. Visa accepted the bank's tender of its 18.6 million Visa Class B-2 shares in exchange for Class B-3 and Class C shares, according to the release. The Class C shares are held at fair value, and that is where the gain was recorded.
There was no reserve release. The provision for credit losses was $2.5 billion, and the bank reported a net reserve build of $149 million, mostly in wholesale lending.
Why the sequential picture misleads
Year-on-year growth rates compare this quarter with the third quarter of 2025, so the second quarter's gains do not enter them. On MarketBeat's figures, consensus revenue is about 9 per cent above a year earlier and consensus earnings about 17 per cent higher, by this publication's arithmetic.
The gains matter for the quarter-on-quarter comparison. Take the $5.6 billion out of second-quarter managed revenue and about $52.4 billion remains. Against that, the $51.2 billion consensus is a dip of about 2 per cent. Against the reported $58.0 billion it would look like a 12 per cent fall. On earnings, the consensus $5.93 a share is 23 per cent below the reported $7.70, but only about 3 per cent below the $6.14 excluding the gains. MarketBeat's year-earlier revenue figure appears to be on a managed basis; we have not confirmed which basis each forecaster uses.
The Visa shares have not gone away. Because the Class C shares are carried at fair value, a move in Visa's stock, or a sale, can show up in third-quarter revenue. Whether it will is not something the bank has said, and the consensus figures do not tell us.
The operating lines
The business underneath looked steady in the second quarter. Net interest income excluding Markets was $23.7 billion, up 4 per cent, and Markets revenue was $12.1 billion, up 35 per cent, driven mostly by equities, according to the release. The bank estimated its standardized CET1 ratio at 14.1 per cent.
For the third quarter, Reuters reported that Co-President Doug Petno told an investor conference in September that investment banking fees and trading revenue would rise by a "mid-to-high teens" percentage. Reuters also reported that higher interest rates slowed capital markets activity late in the quarter. The Federal Reserve raised its target range to 3.75 to 4 per cent in September, and the 10-year Treasury yield has been above 5 per cent since late that month.
The rest of the week
JPMorgan does not report alone. Goldman Sachs, Citigroup and Wells Fargo are also due on 13 October, and Morgan Stanley and Bank of America on 14 October, according to Reuters. Bank of America's results land on the same morning as the September consumer price index.
What to watch
Three lines will settle how to read the quarter: whether JPMorgan books a Visa-related mark or sale, and how large; whether investment banking and trading come in near the guided mid-to-high teens despite the late slowdown; and whether the provision stays near the second quarter's $2.5 billion. A larger reserve build would be the first sign that higher rates are reaching borrowers.
Nothing has been reported yet. The numbers arrive before the market opens on Tuesday.
The 13 October release and call times come from JPMorganChase's announcement of 17 September 2026. All second-quarter figures (net income of $21.2 billion, earnings of $7.70 a share and $6.14 excluding significant items, reported revenue of $57.3 billion and managed revenue of $58.0 billion, the $4.6 billion Visa gain, the $1.0 billion of equity gains and their split by segment, the Visa share exchange, the $2.5 billion provision and $149 million reserve build, net interest income excluding Markets, Markets revenue and the estimated 14.1 per cent standardized CET1 ratio) come from JPMorgan's second-quarter earnings release of 14 July 2026, filed with the SEC. Consensus revenue and earnings and the year-earlier figures are from MarketBeat. Doug Petno's guidance, the comment on capital markets activity and the reporting dates of the other banks are as reported by Reuters on 8 October 2026, via Investing.com. A brief for this story cited a $7.9 billion Visa gain, a partial reserve release and Visible Alpha growth forecasts; the filing does not support the first two and we could not open the source for the third, so none is used. The $52.4 billion underlying revenue figure and the percentage comparisons are this publication's arithmetic. The analysis is our own.
Topics businessearningsCitigroup
