JPMorgan Chase earned $15.3 billion in the third quarter, or $5.57 a share, according to its earnings release on Tuesday. That is 6 per cent more profit than a year earlier and 10 per cent more per share. It is also less than analysts expected. Reuters put the LSEG consensus at $5.85 a share and said it was the bank's first profit miss since the fourth quarter of 2023. Yahoo Finance cited a $5.90 estimate. Estimates differ by provider, and every one we have seen was above the result.
The bank has a one-off to point to, and it put it in the headline of its release. The number underneath it is the more useful one.
What the securities loss explains
JPMorgan booked $658 million of net investment securities losses in its Corporate segment, which cut net income by $498 million and earnings by 18 cents a share. Excluding that item, the bank earned $15.8 billion, or $5.75 a share, with a return on tangible common equity of 21 per cent.
The loss was a choice. Chief executive Jamie Dimon described it in the release as "discretionary investment securities losses totaling $498 million after tax." The bank did not say which securities it sold or why.
Even with the loss added back, $5.75 is 10 cents short of the LSEG consensus and 15 cents short of Yahoo Finance's figure, by this publication's arithmetic. The securities line explains part of the miss, not all of it.
Revenue fell short as well. Managed revenue was $50.9 billion, up 8 per cent, and reported revenue $50.2 billion. Before the results, MarketBeat's consensus was $51.23 billion, as this publication reported on Sunday.
Trading and deals: slower than September's guidance
In September, co-president Doug Petno said investment banking fees and markets revenue were expected to rise by a "mid-to-high teens" percentage in the third quarter, Reuters reported. Investment banking fees rose 14 per cent from a year earlier, to $3.0 billion, and markets revenue rose 15 per cent, to $10.3 billion. Both sit at or just under the bottom of that range. Investment banking fees fell 8 per cent from the second quarter.
The mix was lopsided. Equity markets revenue rose 49 per cent to $5.0 billion, which the bank attributed to prime brokerage and derivatives. Fixed income markets revenue fell 4 per cent to $5.4 billion, with lower revenue in commodities, rates, credit and public finance.
Chris Marinac, director of research at Janney Montgomery Scott, told Reuters: "There is a slight miss on Street consensus for fixed income trading, equity underwriting and also debt underwriting."
Dimon's own account was that markets revenue and investment banking fees "each rose at a mid-teens rate, helped by strong levels of client activity, although activity did moderate somewhat during the quarter."
Where the bank was stronger
Net interest income excluding Markets rose 6 per cent to $24.7 billion, and average loans rose 10 per cent. Total net interest income was $27.1 billion, up 13 per cent. Consumer credit was steady: the card net charge-off rate was 2.91 per cent, against 3.15 per cent a year earlier and 3.34 per cent in the second quarter.
On guidance, reports differed during the morning. Some said the bank had put 2026 net interest income excluding Markets at $97.5 billion. JPMorgan's earnings presentation puts the full-year implied figure at about $97.2 billion, after $71.7 billion in the first nine months and about $25.5 billion expected in the fourth quarter. Including Markets, it implies about $106.2 billion. For 2027, the slides give a preliminary central case of about $107 billion excluding Markets, which the bank attributes to balance sheet growth and higher rates.
Less capital going back
The release also shows the bank holding on to more of its capital. Net share repurchases were $664 million in the quarter. "In line with our hierarchy, we reduced share repurchases this quarter," Dimon said, adding that the bank believes it can deploy the capital "at very attractive returns." The standardized CET1 ratio fell to 13.9 per cent from 14.2 per cent in the second quarter, as risk-weighted assets rose to $2.18 trillion.
The warning in the statement
Dimon said the U.S. economy was "fueled by strong business investment and ongoing consumer spending," but that "large fiscal deficits, sticky inflation, elevated asset prices, rising interest rates and geopolitical conditions continue to shift under the surface." He added: "These forces may be manageable, but we remain prepared for a wide range of outcomes."
Rising rates are not hypothetical. Reuters noted that the Federal Reserve raised rates in September for the first time since 2023. Wells Fargo's results, also out on Tuesday, show what the bond market did to its balance sheet: its accumulated other comprehensive loss roughly doubled in the quarter. Goldman Sachs went the other way on earnings, reporting $17.01 a share against the $13.02 consensus this publication cited on Monday, on equities revenue of $6.44 billion.
JPMorgan's shares fell nearly 3 per cent shortly after the release and were later up 0.8 per cent in premarket trading, Reuters reported.
What to watch next
Bank of America and Morgan Stanley report on Wednesday. Both will show whether softer fixed income and slowing deal activity were particular to JPMorgan or common to the group. Reuters reported on 8 October that Bank of America's chief executive, Brian Moynihan, expected investment banking fees to fall at least 10 per cent in the quarter, with sales and trading flat.
For JPMorgan, the fourth quarter is the test. The bank expects about $25.5 billion of net interest income excluding Markets, more than the third quarter's $24.7 billion. If fees and fixed income recover alongside it, the third quarter will read as a quarter with a bond-portfolio decision in it. If they do not, the 18 cents was never the story.
All JPMorgan financial figures, the significant item, Jamie Dimon's quotations, the capital figures and the net interest income outlook are from the bank's third-quarter earnings release and earnings presentation, both furnished to the SEC on 13 October 2026, and its second-quarter release of 14 July 2026. The $5.85 LSEG estimate, the first-miss-since-the-fourth-quarter-of-2023 claim, Doug Petno's September guidance, the Chris Marinac quotation and the share-price move are from Reuters as published by The Globe and Mail on 13 October. The $5.90 estimate is from Yahoo Finance (David Hollerith), 13 October. The $51.23 billion revenue consensus is from MarketBeat, as previously reported by this publication. Some early reports gave the 2026 net interest income guidance excluding Markets as $97.5 billion; the bank's own slides say about $97.2 billion, and we use that. Wells Fargo figures are from its release of 13 October; Goldman Sachs figures are from its release of 13 October. Bank of America's expectations are from a Reuters preview of 8 October. Percentage gaps and per-share comparisons not printed by the bank are this publication's arithmetic. The analysis is our own.
Topics marketsJPMorgan Chasebank earningsinvestment bankingtrading
