The price of West Texas crude averaged $102.07 a barrel in October, up 58 per cent since February, according to the Energy Information Administration. Over the same eight months, the number of people employed by American oil and gas extraction companies fell by 2,300.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics put seasonally adjusted employment in oil and gas extraction at 113,900 in October, a preliminary figure, against 116,200 in February. That is the lowest since March 2022. Employment in support activities for mining, the category that includes the contractors who drill and service wells, rose by about 1,400 over the same period, to 262,400. Taken together, the oil patch has roughly the workforce it had before prices jumped.
How does this compare with earlier oil booms?
Badly, if jobs are the measure. We took the two most recent periods when crude moved above $100 and compared the monthly price with the two BLS employment series over a similar stretch.
| Period | WTI, start | WTI, end | Extraction jobs, start | Extraction jobs, end | Change | Support jobs, start | Support jobs, end | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2022 to Jun 2022 | $83.22 | $114.84 | 110.9 | 121.3 | +9.4% | 242.9 | 258.8 | +6.5% |
| Feb 2026 to Oct 2026 | $64.51 | $102.07 | 116.2 | 113.9 | -2.0% | 261.0 | 262.4 | +0.5% |
| Jun 2014 (for scale) | $105.79 | 198.1 | 436.0 |
In 2022 the industry added almost a tenth to its extraction payrolls within five months, and support jobs kept rising for a year after crude peaked, reaching 290,200 by June 2023. In 2026 extraction payrolls have done the opposite, and support jobs have barely moved. Against the 2014 peak, when extraction employment reached 200,800 in October of that year, today's workforce is 43 per cent smaller.
The difference is not that the industry pumps less. U.S. crude production averaged 13.97 million barrels a day in August 2026, according to EIA field production data, against 8.92 million in August 2014. Divide output by extraction employment and each worker accounts for about 122 barrels a day now, against 45 then, by our arithmetic. The ratio is crude, since extraction payrolls include office staff and gas producers, but the direction is not in doubt.
Why aren't producers hiring?
Part of the answer is that they do not think the price will last. Executives in the Dallas Fed's third-quarter energy survey, released on 30 September and covering 125 firms, expected WTI to end the year at about $88.38, well below October's average. The daily price was $89.62 on 11 November, according to EIA data. Federal forecasters have been raising their price outlook for months, but from a low base.
The other part is that output has barely moved. August production was 0.9 per cent above August 2025, by the EIA's count. A company that sees the price as temporary can earn more from existing wells without adding crews, which is the pattern we found when we looked at how oil states' economies grew in dollars but shrank in volume in the spring.
Is anyone hiring?
Texas is, a little. BLS state data show mining and logging employment in Texas rose from 206,800 in February to 212,400 in September, a preliminary figure. That category is wider than oil and gas, and the state series does not split it. North Dakota's was unchanged at 17,200 over the same months, and New Mexico's rose by 700.
The Dallas Fed survey points the same way. Its employment index rose to 15.2 in the third quarter from 4.7 in the second, and its index of employee hours to 20.0. "Labor market indicators improved modestly in the third quarter," the bank said. A positive reading means more firms reported increases than decreases; it says nothing about how many people were hired. The survey's wages and benefits index was 23.2, down slightly from 26.0, so firms are still reporting rising pay, but not faster than in the spring. Its business activity index fell to 38.8 from 46.1. Firms are busier than a year ago and less so than they were in the second quarter, when crude first jumped.
Our reading is that the hiring that has happened sits mostly with service contractors in Texas and has been offset by cuts among producers elsewhere. The BLS national series cannot confirm that split by state, so it remains an inference.
What to watch
The BLS will publish November employment on 4 December 2026, and revises each month twice, so October's 113,900 can still move. The Dallas Fed's fourth-quarter survey is due on 16 December. If its executives raise their year-ahead price expectations toward $100, the hiring question becomes a fair test. If they do not, the industry has told us how it plans to treat this boom.
Employment in oil and gas extraction (series CES1021100001) and support activities for mining (CES1021300001), seasonally adjusted, and Texas mining and logging employment (TXNRMN) are Bureau of Labor Statistics data retrieved via FRED on 13 November 2026; October 2026 national and September 2026 state figures are preliminary. Monthly and daily West Texas Intermediate prices (MCOILWTICO, DCOILWTICO) are EIA data via FRED. U.S. field production of crude oil is from the EIA's petroleum data series MCRFPUS2, retrieved on 13 November 2026. The Dallas Fed survey figures and quotation, including the wages and business activity indexes, are from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Energy Survey for the third quarter of 2026, released on 30 September 2026. Percentage changes, comparisons across periods and output per employee are this publication's arithmetic. The analysis is our own.
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