Thursday, October 15, 2026
In the year to September, US employers added 496,000 jobs. Health care and social assistance added 520,000, so the rest of the economy together lost jobs. Measured over 12 months, that has been true every month since June 2025. In payroll data back to 1990, the only comparable stretches came around recessions.
The September jobs report added 29,000 jobs and cut 60,000 from the two months before. Inside it, insurance carriers and the businesses around them lost jobs for the 11th month running. They now employ about 90,000 fewer people than in May 2025, a faster fall than in any comparable stretch in data going back to 1990. In the industry's own hiring survey, carriers keep saying the opposite.
Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell to 197,000 in the week ending 19 September, the Labor Department reported on Thursday, with the insured unemployment rate at 1.1 per cent. Challenger, Gray & Christmas counts 155,126 announced job cuts in technology through August, up 52 per cent on last year and 29 per cent of every cut announced in the United States. Both numbers are correct, and the reason they do not collide is the denominator.
Employment for 22- to 25-year-olds in AI-exposed occupations is down about 16 percent, and companies adopting AI have cut junior hiring by around 13 percent. Aggregate unemployment among AI-exposed workers shows no detectable rise since late 2022. All three findings are consistent, because only one of them measures a door that stopped opening.