Employment

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A welder in a helmet leans over a length of steel pipework in a metal fabrication shop, sparks and a bright blue arc flaring from the seam, with welding sets, gas bottles and overhead ducting filling the workshop behind him.
The Numbers

Claims Fell to 197,000 While Tech Announced 155,126 Cuts. Check the Denominator.

Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell to 197,000 in the week ending 19 September, the Labor Department reported on Thursday, with the insured unemployment rate at 1.1 per cent. Challenger, Gray & Christmas counts 155,126 announced job cuts in technology through August, up 52 per cent on last year and 29 per cent of every cut announced in the United States. Both numbers are correct, and the reason they do not collide is the denominator.

An open-plan office with unoccupied desks and dark monitor screens.
The Long View

The Unemployment Rate Cannot See a Job That Was Never Offered

Employment for 22- to 25-year-olds in AI-exposed occupations is down about 16 percent, and companies adopting AI have cut junior hiring by around 13 percent. Aggregate unemployment among AI-exposed workers shows no detectable rise since late 2022. All three findings are consistent, because only one of them measures a door that stopped opening.