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Cranberry Journal

Tuesday, September 29, 2026

Also in this edition
Markets
  • S&P 5007,660.02−0.31%
  • Nasdaq26,763.99−0.21%
  • Dow51,194.32−0.56%
  • 10-yr yield5.27%+0.53%
  • Crude$90.49−2.28%
At the close · Sep 29

Federal Reserve

Tagged stories

A welder in a helmet leans over a length of steel pipework in a metal fabrication shop, sparks and a bright blue arc flaring from the seam, with welding sets, gas bottles and overhead ducting filling the workshop behind him.
The Numbers

Claims Fell to 197,000 While Tech Announced 155,126 Cuts. Check the Denominator.

Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell to 197,000 in the week ending 19 September, the Labor Department reported on Thursday, with the insured unemployment rate at 1.1 per cent. Challenger, Gray & Christmas counts 155,126 announced job cuts in technology through August, up 52 per cent on last year and 29 per cent of every cut announced in the United States. Both numbers are correct, and the reason they do not collide is the denominator.

By Daniel Okafor  

A Wall St street sign on a lamp post in black and white, with office buildings blurred behind it.
The Long View

Five Percent. The Monday the Price of Money, Energy and the Future Moved Together.

On Monday the 10-year Treasury yield touched 5 percent for the first time since 2023. Brent neared $110 before settling back. Diesel set a record at $6.23 a gallon. Chip stocks fell almost 6 percent. By the close, markets put the odds of a Federal Reserve rate increase on Wednesday above 90 percent. Each of those has its own story. Together they describe one: the end of the assumption that the shocks of this year would pass on their own.

By Daniel Okafor  

A scattered layer of US one-dollar bills photographed from above.
Explainer

A Month Ago a Fed Hike Was a Coin Toss. The Market Now Treats It as Settled.

The Federal Reserve decides on Wednesday whether to raise its benchmark rate from 3.50 to 3.75 percent. After Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole speech, betting on a hike was roughly even. After August's core inflation came in above forecast and oil rose toward $108, futures priced it at about 85 percent on Monday. For households, the effects arrive at very different speeds.

By Daniel Okafor  

A silicon wafer patterned with a grid of iridescent chip dies, photographed in shallow focus.
The Numbers

The Market Read the Essay as a Forecast for Chip Demand

Chip stocks fell before Monday's open after the heads of Anthropic and OpenAI said the industry should slow the rate at which AI models improve. Nvidia was down 3 percent in premarket trading, Marvell and Arm 6 percent, and ASML 9.5 percent. The labs are mostly private. The public way to express a view on slower AI is to sell the companies that supply it.

By Daniel Okafor  

The Wall Street subway station sign beside an empty staircase, in black and white.
The Numbers

The Long End Stopped Waiting for the Fed

The funds rate has sat at 3.5 to 3.75 percent while the 30-year Treasury reached 5.31 percent last month, its highest in 19 years, and the 10-year went to levels last seen in 2023. A governor says he is inclined to hold. The long end is not arguing with him. It has stopped listening.

By Daniel Okafor