ASML will announce its third-quarter results on Wednesday 14 October, according to the financial calendar in its half-year report, and the release will not contain the figure that used to move the stock. The Dutch maker of chipmaking machines last published quarterly net bookings in January, €13.2 billion for the fourth quarter of 2025. Its first- and second-quarter releases this year carry none. What the results will still show is where the sales came from.
On that, the company's own numbers sit below its own guidance. Customers in China accounted for €2.9 billion of ASML's €18.1 billion of first-half sales, about 16 per cent, the interim report shows. Management has said it expects China to be about 20 per cent of sales for the year. The gap has to close in the second half.
What ASML has reported
In its second-quarter release on 15 July, ASML reported net sales of €9.3 billion and net income of €2.9 billion. It guided to third-quarter net sales of €11.0 billion to €12.0 billion and raised its 2026 range to €43 billion to €45 billion. That puts the third quarter 18 to 29 per cent above the second.
China's sales fell to €2,883 million in the first half from €3,712 million a year earlier. CNBC reported that its share fell from 19 per cent in the first quarter to 14 per cent in the second. The decline is longer than two quarters. By ASML's 2025 annual report, China was €9.52 billion, or 29 per cent, of 2025 net sales, and €10.20 billion, or 36 per cent, in 2024.
By this publication's arithmetic, the full-year guide implies a rise. Twenty per cent of €43 billion to €45 billion is €8.6 billion to €9.0 billion. After the €2.9 billion already booked, that leaves €5.7 billion to €6.1 billion for the second half, or about 23 per cent of second-half sales. If "about 20" means anywhere from 19 to 21 per cent, the range is roughly 21 to 25 per cent.
The forecast, and who made it
A news item carried by the exchange KuCoin on 8 October, credited to the outlet MarsBit, has China falling from 29 per cent of ASML's revenue in 2025 to 15 per cent in 2028. Its headline names Morgan Stanley. Its text attributes the numbers to Bank of America, and its disclaimer calls it a compilation of a Bank of America report. This publication could not find the original note.
The forecast's starting point is solid: its €9.52 billion for China in 2025 matches ASML's annual report. Its end point is €11.602 billion of China revenue in 2028 against €76.57 billion in total. Two things follow. China's sales rise by about 22 per cent over the period; the share falls because non-China revenue nearly triples, from €23.15 billion to about €64.97 billion. And the total runs ahead of the company. ASML's April results presentation restated a 2030 revenue opportunity of about €44 billion to €60 billion, first set out at its November 2024 Investor Day. A 2028 figure of €76.57 billion would be above the top of that range, two years early.
The item also has 120 EUV units shipped in 2028. Christophe Fouquet, ASML's chief executive, said in July that the company plans to add 30 per cent to its 2026 low-NA EUV capacity "of around 65" for 2027 and is investigating another 30 per cent for 2028. Two such steps take 65 to about 110. The forecast may count units differently, but the gap is worth noting.
What the release can and cannot show
Without bookings, the order evidence is qualitative. In July Fouquet said order intake "remained extremely strong in the first half of the year". That is a description, not a number.
The usable test is therefore the China line. If China is 14 per cent of third-quarter sales, that is roughly €1.5 billion to €1.7 billion on the guided range. At the 23 per cent the second half implies, it is €2.5 billion to €2.8 billion. The two outcomes tell different stories. The first says other markets are carrying the quarter and the full-year China expectation is generous. The second says Chinese shipments are back-loaded and the expectation holds.
What to watch
TSMC reports the next day, with its third-quarter conference on Thursday 15 October at 14:00 Taiwan time. Its capital spending plans are the demand side of ASML's EUV capacity, and TSMC's Arizona plants are among the buyers.
One caution on consensus. MarketBeat's preview puts expected revenue at $13.16 billion, in dollars, while ASML guides in euros, and it gives a last-reported date of 28 June, although ASML reported on 15 July. ASML's own calendar is the date source here.
A China figure near 14 per cent on Wednesday would leave the 20 per cent view needing a large fourth-quarter catch-up. A figure in the low 20s would mean the decline the 2028 forecast describes is slower than it looks. ASML's next Capital Markets Day, on 10 June 2027, is when the company says it will update its longer-term view.
The 14 October date comes from the financial calendar in ASML's statutory interim report for the first half of 2026, filed with the SEC on 15 July. Q1 and Q2 2026 net sales, Q3 and full-year guidance, the CEO's remarks on order intake and EUV capacity and the 10 June 2027 Capital Markets Day come from ASML's second-quarter release of 15 July 2026. First-half sales by region are from the interim report. Full-year 2024 and 2025 sales by region are from ASML's 2025 annual report on Form 20-F. The Q4 2025 bookings figure is from ASML's release of 28 January 2026; the absence of bookings is from its Q1 and Q2 2026 releases. The 2030 revenue range is from ASML's Q1 2026 results presentation. The quarterly China shares of 19 and 14 per cent are as reported by CNBC on 15 July 2026, and management's "approximately 20 per cent" is from the second-quarter call as reported in published summaries. The 2025 to 2028 forecast is from a MarsBit item carried by KuCoin on 8 October 2026; its headline names Morgan Stanley, its text names Bank of America, and its disclaimer describes it as a compilation of a Bank of America report. We could not locate the original note. The TSMC date is from TSMC's investor site. MarketBeat's preview (7 October) is cited only for its stated consensus. A brief for this story cited remarks by ASML's chief financial officer on domestic Chinese demand and a CNBC quote; we could not verify them and they are not used. The second-half China share, Q3 scenarios, forecast growth rates, the comparison with ASML's 2030 range and the EUV capacity comparison are this publication's arithmetic. The analysis is our own.
Topics marketssemiconductorsChinaTSMCearnings preview
