General Motors reports third-quarter results on Tuesday 20 October, the date on its investor-relations calendar. The company usually publishes before the market opens and holds an analyst call at 8:30 a.m. Eastern. Analysts expect adjusted earnings of $3.52 a share, up 25.7 per cent from a year earlier, on revenue of $48.24 billion, down 0.7 per cent, Zacks said in a preview published on Yahoo Finance. By this publication's arithmetic, the percentage implies year-earlier earnings of about $2.80 a share.
The more interesting number is underneath. Zacks expects GM's North American segment to earn an operating profit of $3.28 billion, against $2.51 billion a year earlier, on revenue of $40.27 billion, which is also down 0.7 per cent. By our arithmetic that is a rise of about 31 per cent in profit on slightly lower revenue, lifting the segment's margin from about 6.2 per cent to about 8.1 per cent. These are forecasts, not results.
The sales problem
GM said this month that its U.S. sales fell 6 per cent in the quarter to 670,974 vehicles, DBusiness reported, and the company put the drop down partly to "the much smaller EV market and discontinued vehicles." Duncan Aldred, president of GM North America, said: "Our business is performing very well."
Zacks nonetheless projects North American wholesale volume of about 842,000 vehicles, against 840,000 a year earlier, and total wholesale volume of about 981,000, against 977,000. Wholesale counts vehicles GM ships to dealers, not vehicles customers buy. When shipments hold steady while retail sales fall, dealer inventory grows. That is our inference from the two sets of numbers, not a statement from GM or the analysts.
For a profit increase to coincide with falling sales, price, mix or cost must have moved GM's way. The forecasts do not say which. One comparison sets expectations: in the second quarter, GM's North American segment earned $3.4 billion on an EBIT-adjusted basis, up 42.7 per cent, according to the company's release. The third-quarter forecast is slightly below that, so the consensus already assumes some of the second quarter's strength fades.
The guidance split
In that 21 July release GM reported revenue of $48.0 billion, EBIT-adjusted of $3.9 billion and adjusted earnings of $3.57 a share, against $2.53 a year earlier. Net income attributable to stockholders fell to $1.3 billion from $1.9 billion, after $2.3 billion of charges the company classes as EV strategic realignment.
GM raised its full-year 2026 guidance for EBIT-adjusted to $14 billion to $16 billion, from $13.5 billion to $15.5 billion, and for adjusted earnings to $12 to $14 a share, from $11.50 to $13.50. At the same time it cut its net income range to $8.4 billion to $9.8 billion, from $9.9 billion to $11.4 billion. Guidance that raises the operating measures and cuts the bottom line points to charges, not day-to-day operations, as the swing factor. Our earlier coverage of the weak electric-vehicle market is here.
Zacks also forecasts weaker results outside North America: GM International operating profit of $143.6 million against $226 million a year ago, and GM Financial at $775 million against $804 million.
What to watch
Three items will settle the story on Tuesday: whether North American profit lands near $3.28 billion, whether GM says anything about dealer inventory or incentives as sales slide, and whether it changes its full-year ranges again, including any further EV charges. A beat that depends on pricing would be harder to repeat in a quarter when sales are falling.
Sources
- Zacks Equity Research, General Motors third-quarter preview, via Yahoo Finance, 15 October 2026: https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/general-motors-gm-q3-earnings-121523736.html
- General Motors, second-quarter 2026 results release, exhibit to Form 8-K, 21 July 2026: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001467858/000146785826000049/gmq22026pressreleaseandfin.htm
- General Motors investor relations, events calendar: https://investor.gm.com/events/event-details/general-motors-company-q2-2026-earnings-conference-call
- DBusiness, "Stellantis Sales Tick up 3% in Q3, GM Sales Down 6%, Ford Sales Slip 6.6%," 5 October 2026: https://www.dbusiness.com/daily-news/stellantis-sales-tick-up-3-in-q3-gm-sales-down-6-ford-sales-slip-6-6/
The estimates and segment forecasts come from a Zacks Equity Research preview published on Yahoo Finance on 15 October 2026. The 20 October date comes from GM's investor-relations events listing. U.S. sales of 670,974 and the comments of Duncan Aldred come from DBusiness, 5 October 2026. Second-quarter results and 2026 guidance come from GM's second-quarter release, filed with the SEC as an exhibit to a Form 8-K on 21 July 2026. Year-earlier figures implied by percentage changes, margins and the percentage change in North American profit are this publication's arithmetic. The analysis is our own.
Topics businessGeneral Motorsearningsautoselectric vehicles
