The Cheesecake Factory's namesake restaurants served 9.5 per cent more guests in the third quarter than a year earlier, and their comparable sales rose 15.2 per cent, the company reported on 27 October. The day after, Chipotle Mexican Grill reported comparable sales up 2.1 per cent, with transactions up 0.8 per cent.
A year ago the comparison ran the other way in spirit. Cheesecake Factory's comparable sales in the third quarter of 2025 grew 0.3 per cent. "We delivered an exceptional third quarter, generating record quarterly revenue," said David Overton, its chairman and chief executive, who credited menu changes, the chain's rewards programme and engagement on social media.
Where did the Cheesecake Factory's growth come from?
Mostly from more people. On the earnings call, executives broke the 15.2 per cent into 9.5 points of traffic, 2.4 points of pricing and 3.3 points of mix, the last helped by a Cajun salmon dish that spread on social media. They said traffic beat the Black Box casual-dining index by 940 basis points. By this publication's arithmetic, that puts the index's own traffic at roughly 0.1 per cent: the industry was flat, and one chain was not.
Total revenue across the group, which also runs North Italia, Flower Child and other Fox Restaurant Concepts brands, rose to a record $1,033.4 million from $907.2 million. Average annual sales per namesake restaurant were $13.9 million, executives said, and the namesake restaurants' margin rose 2.4 points to 18.7 per cent. Not every brand shared in it: North Italia's comparable sales fell 3 per cent.
| Third quarter 2026 | The Cheesecake Factory (namesake) | Chipotle |
|---|---|---|
| Comparable sales | +15.2% | +2.1% |
| Traffic / transactions | +9.5% | +0.8% |
| Price and mix / average check | +5.7% (2.4 price, 3.3 mix) | +1.3% |
| Restaurant-level margin | 18.7%, up 2.4 points | 23.3%, down 1.2 points |
| Company revenue | $1,033.4 million, +13.9% | $3.3 billion, +9.6% |
Sources: company releases of 27 and 28 October 2026 and the Cheesecake Factory earnings call. Growth rates are this publication's arithmetic where not given.
What is happening at Chipotle?
Growth from new restaurants, with thin gains in old ones. Chipotle's revenue rose 9.6 per cent, driven by openings: it opened 84 company-owned restaurants in the quarter. Comparable sales of 2.1 per cent split into 1.3 points of check and 0.8 of transactions. Scott Boatwright, the chief executive, pointed to a third consecutive quarter of growth in comparable transactions.
Its margins went the other way. Restaurant-level operating margin fell to 23.3 per cent from 24.5 per cent. Food and packaging costs eased to 29.5 per cent of revenue, helped by menu price increases and tariff relief, but labour rose to 25.7 per cent, which the company attributed to lower sales volumes, higher pay, extra staffing for promotions and insurance. Diluted earnings fell to $0.27 a share from $0.29. Chipotle kept its 2026 forecast of low-single-digit comparable growth and 350 to 370 openings, and bought back $110 million of stock in the quarter.
Why are the chains' own executives cautious?
Because surges built on social media can fade. Cheesecake Factory's management told analysts it was "early" to judge how durable its new, younger guests would be, with about four months of data. Its fourth-quarter guide of $1.04 billion to $1.05 billion assumes a 3 per cent menu price increase and models the busy last weeks of the year at flat traffic, because, executives said, the restaurants are near capacity then. The company also set 2027 assumptions it called "more closely aligned with our historical algorithm objectives."
The wider restaurant picture is uneven. Fast-food traffic has been falling while chicken chains grew, as Lamb Weston's results showed this month, and Wendy's is the subject of a $7.35-a-share buyout proposal from Trian and a large franchisee.
What to watch
Cheesecake Factory's fourth-quarter traffic. If it stays well above the industry once the year-ago comparison toughens and the viral dishes age, the gain is in the business; if it falls back toward the index, it was a moment. For Chipotle, the test is labour: whether more transactions per restaurant can pull the labour line back down without more promotions that need more staff.
Cheesecake Factory revenue, comparable sales, earnings, openings, the dividend and David Overton's quoted line are from the company's third-quarter release filed with the SEC on 27 October 2026. Traffic, pricing and mix, the Black Box comparison, average unit volume, restaurant-level margin, North Italia and Flower Child figures, the fourth-quarter guide and management's caution on its new guests are from the earnings call on 27 October 2026, as transcribed by The Motley Fool. Chipotle's revenue, comparable sales, margins, cost drivers, openings, guidance and buybacks are from its third-quarter release filed with the SEC on 28 October 2026. The implied industry traffic figure and the comparison table are this publication's arithmetic. The analysis is our own.
Topics businessrestaurantscasual diningearningsconsumer spending
