Kevin Warsh

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The Numbers

The Fed Held Rates at 3.75 to 4 Per Cent, and Two Officials Voted for a Hike. The Next Morning, Core Inflation Came In at 3.1 Per Cent.

The Federal Reserve kept its target range at 3.75 to 4 per cent on Wednesday by a 10-2 vote, with Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack voting for a quarter-point increase. On Thursday the government reported growth of 3.4 per cent in the third quarter and core PCE inflation of 3.1 per cent in September. The next decision is due on 9 December.

By Daniel Okafor · October 29, 2026

Markets

Warsh Would Not Say Whether the Fed Will Hike Again on 28 October. His Last Words Before the Quiet Period Were About AI.

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh told the IMF and World Bank meetings in Bangkok on Friday 16 October that he does not prejudge meetings, and called AI probably the most consequential economic change of his lifetime. The Fed decides on 28 October after raising rates to 3.75 to 4 per cent in September.

By Daniel Okafor · October 17, 2026

Markets

Hall and Woodford Won the Economics Nobel for Models Behind Forward Guidance. Forty-Five Days Earlier, the Fed Chair Said the Practice "Has Overstayed Its Welcome."

Robert E. Hall and Michael Woodford won the 2026 economics Nobel on Monday for the microeconomic foundations of stabilisation policy. The Academy credits Woodford, among others, with proposing forward guidance. On 28 August Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said the practice "has overstayed its welcome."

By Daniel Okafor · October 12, 2026

The Long View

The Fed Now Counts the AI Buildout as an Inflation Problem. Most Officials Expect Another Rate Rise This Year.

Minutes of the Federal Reserve's September meeting show every participant supported raising rates to a range of 3.75 to 4 per cent, and most expect another increase by the end of the year. Tariffs, the main inflation story of 2025, are fading. Spending on artificial intelligence and energy are taking their place.

By Cory Chamberlain · October 8, 2026