Wednesday, October 14, 2026
Citigroup's head of US rates strategy told clients on Friday that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is likely to reduce long-dated auction sizes and replace the money with Treasury bills, a change that would be announced on 4 November. The bank says the 20-year bond could be cancelled outright.
The Nasdaq and S&P 500 hit record highs this week even as the 10-year Treasury yield touched its highest level since 2002. Underneath the records, fewer stocks are doing the work, and high-yield credit spreads have widened since late September.
Paramount Skydance priced $41.4 billion of secured notes on Wednesday to pay for Warner Bros. Discovery. On Thursday some of the new bonds traded at about 96 cents on the dollar, its existing bonds fell sharply and the cost of insuring its debt reached a 17-year high, Bloomberg reported. The deal is due to close on Tuesday, and the combined company will be called Skydance.
On Monday the 10-year Treasury yield touched 5 percent for the first time since 2023. Brent neared $110 before settling back. Diesel set a record at $6.23 a gallon. Chip stocks fell almost 6 percent. By the close, markets put the odds of a Federal Reserve rate increase on Wednesday above 90 percent. Each of those has its own story. Together they describe one: the end of the assumption that the shocks of this year would pass on their own.
Hyperscalers and related issuers have sold about $225bn of bonds this year by S&P Global's count, on pace for a record. Capital spending now runs at roughly 94 percent of operating cash flow against 40 percent in 2023, and the paper being issued is long — matched to a useful life the issuers estimate themselves.
The ten-year Treasury reached its highest yield since November 2023 on Wednesday. On the same day Japanese ten-year debt passed 3 percent for the first time in thirty years, German yields hit a fourteen-year high and British yields an eighteen-year one. Four governments with four different problems do not usually move together.