The Pentagon will stop routinely excusing contractors from a ban on Chinese, Russian, Iranian and North Korean critical materials on 1 January 2027, and the people who must comply say they do not yet know what a passing excuse looks like. Speaking at the Association of the U.S. Army's annual meeting on Wednesday, Liz Miranda, executive deputy to the commanding general of Army Materiel Command, said mapping supply chains down to raw materials "is no easy task". "We're working towards that. Are we there yet? No. So we are going to see some impact come January," she said, Breaking Defense reported.
The rule comes from Executive Order 14415, "Securing America's Defense Supply Chains and Ensuring Domestic Acquisition of Critical Materials," signed on 20 July 2026. It does not repeal the statute that governs the waivers. It says that on 1 January the secretary and the service secretaries "shall cease to issue waivers under 10 U.S.C. 4872(c)(1) for the acquisition of covered materials," except in one case.
What the order covers
The order leans on the statute for its definitions. Section 4872 covers samarium-cobalt and neodymium-iron-boron magnets, tungsten metal powder, tungsten heavy alloy and components containing it, tantalum metals and alloys, and molybdenum, from North Korea, China, Russia and Iran. An amendment adds germanium and gallium two years after 18 December 2025, which is December 2027. Breaking Defense singled out tungsten alloys, used in engine components and hypersonic weapons, and germanium, used in thermal imaging, and said China dominates both.
The exception is a "formal mitigation plan" accepted by the secretary or a designee. The plan must identify the source of the non-compliant material, document "evidence of exhaustive efforts" to find compliant material, describe the steps to remove it, and establish "a strict projected timeline" for doing so. The order adds that failing to qualify a domestic source "shall not constitute non-availability" unless there are active, adequately funded efforts to do so. Material from the U.S. Strategic Critical Minerals Reserve and from projects financed by the Export-Import Bank, the Development Finance Corporation and several departments is carved out. Fraud, or knowingly failing to carry out an approved plan, can be referred to the attorney general.
The order also reaches down the supply chain, but on a slower clock. Within 180 days the secretary must develop policy and guidance requiring prime contractors and subcontractors to map their supply chains from raw material to end product, and must issue regulations within 90 days after that. Those regulations are to require a "complete indentured Bill of Materials". Counting from 20 July, 180 days ends on 16 January 2027, two weeks after the waivers stop. That is this publication's arithmetic.
The gap between the rule and the supply
The Aerospace Industries Association published a report on critical minerals in September. Breaking Defense says it finds that significant domestic capacity for aerospace-grade materials is "not expected to be available until 2028 or later," and that waivers will still be needed for years after January 2027.
"Industry is still looking for clarity around the mitigation-plan standard and processing timelines," said Dak Hardwick, the association's vice president of international affairs, on Tuesday. Breaking Defense wrote that the order makes the industry's challenges "more acute" because waivers are now limited to companies with an approved plan, with little government feedback on what an acceptable plan is.
Miranda was candid about the limits. "Unfortunately, we cannot insource all of the parts that are required — specifically for drone dominance," she said. The Army plans a "manufacturing rodeo" meant to expose supply-chain and manufacturing risks the service may not know about. She said she does not anticipate "off the cliff" outcomes that would be catastrophic for the service.
The government's promise, and its limits
In a July interview with Breaking Defense, Michael Cadenazzi, assistant secretary of defense for industrial base policy, said the Pentagon would work with companies that need waivers if they make a good-faith effort to find new suppliers. "And if there's a gap, a legitimate gap, [and] you have a plan and you need a window to see you through [to] bridge that gap, that's what we want to know," he said.
Those statements fit together only if plans are accepted quickly. The order ends the routine waiver and puts a paperwork test in its place. The practical question for a small machine shop is whether its customer's plan will be accepted by a deadline that arrives before the capacity does, and before the department's own mapping guidance. That is our reading, not the department's.
What to watch next
Three dates matter. The first is 1 January itself. The second is mid-January, when the mapping guidance is due. The third is the first batch of accepted or rejected mitigation plans, which will show whether "exhaustive efforts" means a supplier survey or a new mine. Until the department publishes the standard, contractors are preparing for a test whose marking scheme they have not seen.
Sources
- The White House, Executive Order 14415, "Securing America's Defense Supply Chains and Ensuring Domestic Acquisition of Critical Materials," 20 July 2026: https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2026/07/securing-americas-defense-supply-chains-and-ensuring-domestic-acquisition-of-critical-materials/
- 10 U.S.C. 4872, via Cornell Legal Information Institute: https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/10/4872
- Breaking Defense, "As critical mineral deadline looms, Army expects to feel 'some impact'," 15 October 2026: https://breakingdefense.com/2026/10/as-critical-mineral-deadline-looms-army-expects-to-feel-some-impact/
- Orrick, "Defense Supply Chain Compliance: Critical Minerals Waiver Cessation Takes Effect January 1, 2027," 1 October 2026: https://www.orrick.com/en/Insights/2026/09/Defense-Supply-Chain-Compliance-Critical-Minerals-Waiver-Cessation-Takes-Effect-January-1-2027
- Aerospace Industries Association, "Strengthening Critical Minerals Supply Chains": https://www.aia-aerospace.org/publications/strengthening-critical-minerals-supply-chains/
The order's terms and quotations come from the text of Executive Order 14415 as published by the White House. The list of covered materials and covered nations comes from 10 U.S.C. 4872 as published by Cornell's Legal Information Institute, including the amendment adding germanium and gallium two years after 18 December 2025. Liz Miranda's, Dak Hardwick's and Michael Cadenazzi's quotations, the AIA's 2028 finding and the tungsten and germanium examples come from Breaking Defense, 15 October 2026. Orrick's client alert of 1 October 2026 was read for context. The date arithmetic (180 days from 20 July is 16 January 2027) is this publication's. The analysis is our own.
Topics businesscritical mineralsrare earths
