Marvell Technology used its investor day on Tuesday to tell Wall Street to think much bigger. The Santa Clara chipmaker raised its fiscal 2028 revenue forecast to about $20 billion and, for the first time, published a fiscal 2031 revenue range of $70 billion to $90 billion. Marvell shares rose about 6 percent during Tuesday's session while rival Broadcom gained about 4 percent, Reuters reported.
The fiscal 2028 figure sits above the $18.2 billion analysts had expected, according to LSEG data cited by Reuters, and it is the second increase in two months. The previous target of about $18 billion was set when Marvell reported second-quarter results in late August, itself up from $16.5 billion. Fiscal 2027 revenue is still expected at around $12 billion, Yahoo Finance reported, which puts the new fiscal 2028 target about 67 percent higher.
The longer-range numbers are the ones straining belief. The $80 billion midpoint of the fiscal 2031 range compares with an average estimate of $46.85 billion from four analysts polled by Visible Alpha, according to Reuters, and even the $70 billion bottom of the range is more than 50 percent above the roughly $45 billion Piper Sandler had modeled, Yahoo Finance reported, citing Benzinga. Marvell booked revenue of $8.195 billion in fiscal 2026, which ended in January, up 42 percent from the year before, according to the company. By this publication's arithmetic, reaching $70 billion from that base requires compounding at about 54 percent a year for five straight years, and the $90 billion top end implies about 61.5 percent.
Chief executive Matt Murphy's case rests on two engines: connectivity and custom silicon. He said the fiscal 2028 increase came "primarily because of connectivity," arguing that data centers have built out compute and memory that lack the links to talk to each other. He singled out scale-up optics, the connections between chips inside a rack, which are all copper today. The business is "$0 this year," he said, and the shift to optical starts next year. Two quarters ago he had sized it at $300 million. "It's gone up again," he said, Stocktwits reported.
On custom chips, Marvell raised its fiscal 2029 revenue target to more than $12 billion, up from more than $10 billion, from about $1.5 billion of custom revenue in fiscal 2026, Stocktwits reported. At the $80 billion midpoint for fiscal 2031, management expects roughly $30 billion from custom products and $37.5 billion from interconnect. Murphy put the custom silicon market at $235 billion by 2030. "Somebody pointed out in the meeting, look, if you just divide that by the 235, it's only 13% market share," he said. "And we've got customers there today." Stocktwits reported that he called the next stage of growth "not a stretch." Management also expects earnings per share above $30 at the $80 billion midpoint and an addressable market of about $400 billion by 2030, FXLeaders reported. Marvell earned $3.07 a share on a GAAP basis, or $2.84 adjusted, in fiscal 2026.
The customer roster underwriting those numbers is the who's who of AI spending. Marvell disclosed in August an expanded agreement with Google that Reuters said could generate up to $120 billion in sales through fiscal 2033 if performance milestones are achieved. In connection with it, Marvell issued Google a warrant to buy up to 58,970,907 shares at $206.58 apiece; apart from a small time-based portion, the shares vest in 240 equal tranches, one for each $500 million of custom product revenue from Google through fiscal 2033, according to Marvell's filing. Nvidia paid $2 billion for convertible preferred stock in Marvell in March. Stocktwits lists Amazon Web Services, Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, Nvidia, OpenAI and Anthropic among Marvell's biggest customers. In the fiscal second quarter, revenue rose 37 percent from a year earlier to $2.739 billion, with data center revenue up 46 percent to $2.17 billion, the company reported.
Wall Street responded with a wave of higher price targets. Needham maintained its Buy rating with a $400 target, according to TradingView, citing Marvell's raised custom revenue target and estimating custom revenue of about $30 billion by fiscal 2031, an 80 percent compound annual growth rate. Susquehanna lifted its target to $340 and Cantor Fitzgerald to $350 while keeping a Neutral rating, and Evercore ISI raised its target to $433 from $275. Oppenheimer and RBC Capital went to $425 and Piper Sandler to $400. TD Cowen upgraded the stock to Buy from Hold with a $350 target, up from $245, with analyst Sean O'Loughlin arguing that Marvell's growth drivers have shifted toward its connectivity franchise and that concentration risk tied to its custom XPU programs has been largely de-risked, Stocktwits reported, citing TheFly. Not everyone followed: Goldman Sachs kept a Neutral rating with a $270 target, below where the stock traded on Wednesday morning.
The skeptic's case writes itself. Marvell's stock has more than tripled this year, according to Reuters, a run that leaves little room for execution slips. On Wednesday the shares slipped below $280 after the investor day rally had pushed them above $300, as investors weighed a much higher valuation bar, FXLeaders reported. The growth plan leans on a small group of hyperscale buyers whose capital spending can turn quickly, and on competing with Broadcom, whose custom silicon business is anchored by relationships with Google and Meta, according to Stocktwits.
Management's answer is that the forecast does not depend on winning a major new customer or landing a "home-run" design win, according to Stocktwits. "It took a long time to get this company on this path and to be a technology leader," Chris Koopmans, Marvell's president and chief operating officer, told Reuters in an interview. "We have a track record of doing what we said we're going to do." The new targets mean that record now has to hold for five more years.
The fiscal 2028 and fiscal 2031 targets, the LSEG and Visible Alpha consensus figures, the August Google agreement value, the share moves on Tuesday and the Koopmans quotes are as reported by Reuters on 6 October 2026. The prior $18 billion fiscal 2028 target, the fiscal 2027 outlook of about $12 billion and the Piper Sandler estimate are as reported by Yahoo Finance on 6 October 2026, the last citing Benzinga. Murphy's quotes, the custom revenue base, the fiscal 2031 segment split, the customer list and the analyst ratings and targets other than Needham's and Susquehanna's are as reported by Stocktwits on 7 October 2026, with TD Cowen's view cited from TheFly; the Needham rating is from TradingView and the earnings, addressable market, Susquehanna target and share prices on Wednesday are as reported by FXLeaders on 7 October 2026. Fiscal 2026 and second-quarter fiscal 2027 results are from Marvell's fiscal 2026 results announcement and its announcement of 27 August 2026, the warrant terms from Marvell's Form 8-K of 19 August 2026 and the Nvidia investment from its Form 8-K of 31 March 2026. The growth rates and percentages are this publication's arithmetic, and the analysis is our own.
Topics technologysemiconductorsartificial intelligencedata centers
