Florida voters decide on Tuesday whether to cut property taxes on homes by an estimated $11.8 billion a year, the largest of at least four property tax measures on state ballots in this election. The figure comes from Florida's Revenue Estimating Conference, the state's official forecasting panel, and it is a recurring loss to counties, cities and special districts, not to schools.
The measure is Amendment 3, which the Legislature placed on the ballot. It needs 60 per cent of the vote to pass. Oklahoma, Wyoming and North Carolina are voting on their own property tax measures on the same day. Polls close tonight, and none of the four outcomes is known. What is known is what each one would do, and what the states themselves say it would cost.
What would Florida's Amendment 3 change?
It would make most of a home's value exempt from local property taxes other than school taxes. Today a Florida homestead gets up to $51,411 off its assessed value for non-school levies in 2026, according to the Tax Foundation. Under the amendment that exemption rises to $150,000 in 2027 and $250,000 in 2028, then grows with inflation from 2029. The exemption against school taxes stays at $25,000.
It also changes how fast other property can be revalued. The yearly cap on assessment increases for non-homestead property, such as rental homes and commercial buildings, falls from 10 per cent to 5 per cent. People who were not permanent Florida residents on 31 December 2026 would get a smaller exemption for their first five years, the conference's analysis says.
How much revenue is at stake in Florida?
The conference estimates $11,834.7 million a year once the changes are fully in place. The cost arrives in steps: $4,929.5 million in the 2027-28 fiscal year, $8,714.5 million in 2028-29, $9,647.9 million in 2029-30 and $10,710.2 million in 2030-31. By our arithmetic, local governments would lose about 42 per cent of the full annual amount in the first year and about 74 per cent in the second.
The burden is concentrated. The conference publishes its estimate county by county, and five large counties carry almost half of it.
| County | Recurring estimated loss | Share of state total |
|---|---|---|
| Miami-Dade | $1,392.6 million | 11.8 per cent |
| Broward | $1,193.2 million | 10.1 per cent |
| Palm Beach | $1,070.1 million | 9.0 per cent |
| Hillsborough | $942.0 million | 8.0 per cent |
| Orange | $781.1 million | 6.6 per cent |
| Five counties combined | $5,379.0 million | 45.5 per cent |
Source: Florida Revenue Estimating Conference, 10 July 2026. Shares are this publication's arithmetic.
The county figures include every non-school taxing authority in the county, so they are larger than any single government's estimate. Orange County's government, for example, expects to lose about $165 million in the first year and $275 million in the second. It says no decisions have been made on how it would respond, and that it would likely need a mix of spending cuts, fees and other revenue.
What are the other three states voting on?
Each has picked a different tool, and only Florida's comes with a firm statewide cost.
| State and measure | What it does | Official cost estimate |
|---|---|---|
| Florida, Amendment 3 | Raises the non-school homestead exemption to $250,000 by 2028; cuts the non-homestead assessment cap from 10 to 5 per cent | $11.8 billion a year to local governments when fully in effect |
| Oklahoma, State Question 847 | Lowers the yearly cap on taxable value growth from 3 to 1.75 per cent for homesteads and farmland, and from 5 to 4 per cent for other property, from 2027 | The ballot title says the "exact impact is unknown" |
| Wyoming, Proposition One | Exempts 50 per cent of the assessed value of a qualifying primary residence, structure only | $92.6 million less state revenue in fiscal 2028; local governments not estimated |
| North Carolina, property tax amendment | Requires the Legislature to set limits on local property tax increases | None; the limits would be written later |
Sources: state revenue offices, ballot texts and secretaries of state, as linked. Compiled by this publication.
Oklahoma's measure, State Question 847, would also rewrite the senior freeze, which now stops homestead values rising at all for owners aged 65 or older below an income limit. The lowest-income seniors would keep a freeze, and those above the threshold would get caps of 0.35 to 1.75 per cent depending on income. Ryan Kiggins, a political scientist at the University of Central Oklahoma, estimated a $42 million cut to local revenue in the first year and $241 million by the fifth, Oklahoma Watch reported; that is one academic's estimate, not an official one.
Wyoming's Proposition One is a citizen initiative. The state's estimate counts only its own revenue, $92.6 million in fiscal 2028 and $95.9 million in 2029, and says the earliest tax year it could apply to is 2027. North Carolina's amendment sets no number at all; its ballot wording asks voters to approve "limits on property tax increases by local governments." The state already caps local rates at $1.50 per $100 of value, the Tax Foundation notes.
Who would pay if the revenue is replaced?
Nobody can say yet, and the official documents do not try. A cap or exemption lowers taxable value. It does not lower tax rates, so local governments could raise rates on what remains taxable, cut spending, or both. That is the general mechanism behind the rise in property tax bills as home values climbed, and it runs in reverse here. In Florida, the remaining base would lean more heavily on non-homestead property, though its assessments could also rise more slowly under the new 5 per cent cap.
Voters will also note that this is a ballot about household bills in a year when prices are a campaign issue. That is context, not a forecast of how anyone will vote.
What happens next?
Counting starts tonight. If Amendment 3 reaches 60 per cent, the first test is the 2027 tax roll, when the $150,000 exemption first applies and Florida's counties set budgets around the conference's $4.9 billion first-year figure. If State Question 847 passes, Oklahoma's lower caps apply from the 2027 tax year. In North Carolina, a yes vote would hand the design of the limit to the Legislature in 2027. The number to watch in each case is the one no ballot printed: what local governments do with their tax rates the following year.
Florida revenue figures, including the recurring $11,834.7 million estimate, the phase-in by fiscal year and the county-by-county figures, are from the Revenue Estimating Conference's analysis of CS/HJR 1F adopted on 10 July 2026 and published by the Office of Economic and Demographic Research. The exemption schedule and the 60 per cent threshold are from that analysis and the Tax Foundation's 20 October 2026 explainer; Orange County's estimate is from the county government's Amendment 3 page. Oklahoma's ballot title and the text of Enrolled Senate Joint Resolution 39 are from the Oklahoma Secretary of State's State Question 847 file; the first-year and fifth-year revenue estimates by Ryan Kiggins of the University of Central Oklahoma and the Oklahoma City bonding estimate are as reported by Oklahoma Watch on 8 October 2026. Wyoming's ballot language and fiscal estimate are from the Wyoming Secretary of State's 2026 statewide ballot propositions booklet. North Carolina's ballot wording is as reported by WUNC on 22 September 2026, and the existing rate limit is from the Tax Foundation's 30 October 2026 comparison. County shares, phase-in percentages and the comparison table are this publication's arithmetic. The analysis is our own.
Topics moneyballot measuresmidterm electionsFloridaNorth Carolinalocal governmenthousing
