Treasury Yields

Tagged stories

Kevin Warsh, smiling, in a dark suit and tie, stands in front of a row of American flags and gold curtains.
The Numbers

The Fed Held Rates at 3.75 to 4 Per Cent, and Two Officials Voted for a Hike. The Next Morning, Core Inflation Came In at 3.1 Per Cent.

The Federal Reserve kept its target range at 3.75 to 4 per cent on Wednesday by a 10-2 vote, with Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack voting for a quarter-point increase. On Thursday the government reported growth of 3.4 per cent in the third quarter and core PCE inflation of 3.1 per cent in September. The next decision is due on 9 December.

Two men walk past the stone facade of the Treasury Department building in Washington, with 'The Department of the Treasury' carved above three doors and seals mounted between them.
The Numbers

Washington Paid $709 Billion of Interest This Year, Almost as Much as It Sent the States for Medicaid

The Treasury paid $709.3 billion of interest on its securities in the fiscal year that ended on Wednesday, according to its daily cash statement, up 16 per cent from a year earlier and more than twice the level of 2022. Medicaid grants to the states came to $721.4 billion. Four years ago interest was about half of Medicaid. The average rate on the debt is still below 3.5 per cent, while new ten-year debt costs 5.3.

A residential street in the Boston area in autumn, with a white clapboard colonial house and a brick-and-grey-shingle house behind a hedge, red and orange trees, and overhead power lines under a grey sky.
The Numbers

Mortgage Rates Are Back Where They Were in 2023. This Time the Cushion Is Already Spent.

The average 30-year mortgage rate rose to 7.28 per cent this week, Freddie Mac said, the highest since November 2023 and the biggest weekly jump since October 2022. The rate is the same as three years ago. What produces it is not. In 2023 lenders charged almost three points over the ten-year Treasury. Now they charge about two, and the ten-year is doing the rest.

A Wall St street sign on a lamp post in black and white, with office buildings blurred behind it.
The Long View

Five Percent. The Monday the Price of Money, Energy and the Future Moved Together.

On Monday the 10-year Treasury yield touched 5 percent for the first time since 2023. Brent neared $110 before settling back. Diesel set a record at $6.23 a gallon. Chip stocks fell almost 6 percent. By the close, markets put the odds of a Federal Reserve rate increase on Wednesday above 90 percent. Each of those has its own story. Together they describe one: the end of the assumption that the shocks of this year would pass on their own.