Treasury Yields

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The Chip Index Has Fallen Eight Sessions in a Row, a Run Last Seen in October 2008. The Semiconductor ETF Is Down 16 Per Cent Since 6 October and Still Up 64 Per Cent for the Year.

The PHLX Semiconductor Index fell 3.8 per cent on Friday 16 October, its eighth straight losing session, a streak it last matched in October 2008. The iShares Semiconductor ETF has lost 16 per cent since 6 October but is still up about 64 per cent in 2026.

By Daniel Okafor October 18, 2026

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Money

A $400,000 Mortgage Now Costs About $294 a Month More Than a Year Ago. Applications Have Fallen Five Weeks Running.

Freddie Mac's 30-year fixed rate averaged 7.40 per cent this week, up from 7.28 per cent and from 6.30 per cent a year ago. It is the highest since November 2023 and the seventh straight weekly rise. Buyers are responding by stepping back.

By Daniel Okafor October 10, 2026

A large bronze ring lettered Federal Reserve Bank San Francisco hangs at the entrance of a vaulted concrete arcade, with overhead cables crossing in front of it.

The Long View

The Fed Now Counts the AI Buildout as an Inflation Problem. Most Officials Expect Another Rate Rise This Year.

Minutes of the Federal Reserve's September meeting show every participant supported raising rates to a range of 3.75 to 4 per cent, and most expect another increase by the end of the year. Tariffs, the main inflation story of 2025, are fading. Spending on artificial intelligence and energy are taking their place.

By Cory Chamberlain October 8, 2026

Two men walk past the stone facade of the Treasury Department building in Washington, with 'The Department of the Treasury' carved above three doors and seals mounted between them.

The Numbers

Washington Paid $709 Billion of Interest This Year, Almost as Much as It Sent the States for Medicaid

The Treasury paid $709.3 billion of interest on its securities in the fiscal year that ended on Wednesday, according to its daily cash statement, up 16 per cent from a year earlier and more than twice the level of 2022. Medicaid grants to the states came to $721.4 billion. Four years ago interest was about half of Medicaid. The average rate on the debt is still below 3.5 per cent, while new ten-year debt costs 5.3.

By Daniel Okafor October 4, 2026

A residential street in the Boston area in autumn, with a white clapboard colonial house and a brick-and-grey-shingle house behind a hedge, red and orange trees, and overhead power lines under a grey sky.

The Numbers

Mortgage Rates Are Back Where They Were in 2023. This Time the Cushion Is Already Spent.

The average 30-year mortgage rate rose to 7.28 per cent this week, Freddie Mac said, the highest since November 2023 and the biggest weekly jump since October 2022. The rate is the same as three years ago. What produces it is not. In 2023 lenders charged almost three points over the ten-year Treasury. Now they charge about two, and the ten-year is doing the rest.

By Daniel Okafor October 3, 2026

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The Long View

Five Percent. The Monday the Price of Money, Energy and the Future Moved Together.

On Monday the 10-year Treasury yield touched 5 percent for the first time since 2023. Brent neared $110 before settling back. Diesel set a record at $6.23 a gallon. Chip stocks fell almost 6 percent. By the close, markets put the odds of a Federal Reserve rate increase on Wednesday above 90 percent. Each of those has its own story. Together they describe one: the end of the assumption that the shocks of this year would pass on their own.

By Daniel Okafor September 15, 2026