Geopolitics

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The Numbers

The Market Was Offered an End Date and Bought the War Instead

Brent settled near $108, the highest in nearly four months. West Texas Intermediate rose above $104 after surging almost 7 percent, closing above $102 for the first time since May. This desk asked yesterday whether traders would price the president's stated end date. They have answered, and the answer is no.

By Daniel Okafor · 4 hours ago

The Numbers

The Oil Curve Has Been Handed Something to Argue With

Brent closed above $100 on Wednesday for the first time since May, and the same afternoon the US president said the war would end immediately after the 3 November election. A forward curve pricing an open-ended disruption has to guess at duration. It has now been given a date to disagree with, which is not the same as being given the truth.

By Daniel Okafor · 27 hours ago